Tim Evans
Tim Evans
average barrel build early further january likely mild million readings rise stocks tendency time toward
Stocks have a tendency toward a counter-seasonal rise in early January ... but the mild readings this time around make a further 2 to 3 million barrel build more likely than the 1.1 million barrel five-year average increase.
climbing crude demand downward high level price reminder revision stocks trouble
The OPEC demand revision is more of a reminder than anything else. Between the high level of crude stocks and the downward revisions to demand, the price should have trouble climbing like it has done this week.
april crude despite drop last market near remain stocks surprise
Despite the surprise 1.3 million-barrel drop in DOE crude stocks for last week, inventories in the market remain near April 1999 highs.
build bulls case drop fight hurt month past price stocks trying
The bulls are trying to put up a fight here, trying to make a case that the build in stocks and the drop in price over the past month haven't really hurt all that bad.
crude desire hold lack limit material oil reflects start stocks sure trend
I'm not sure this is the start of a new trend in crude oil stocks and it probably reflects more of a desire on the part of refiners to limit the material they hold than it does a lack of supply,
crude decline drop further oil stocks surprised
I'm surprised by the drop in crude stocks and the further decline in crude oil imports,
perhaps short situation
The situation is not going to get better in the short term. Perhaps it will get worse.
april covering crude draw last oil short since surprise total trigger weekly
Crude oil may have been able to trigger short covering off the surprise 1.3 million-barrel draw from last week, but inventories are still at their second-highest weekly total since April 1999.
begin behind develop employed higher potential push simple strong term turn widely
Profit-taking was the most widely employed term for what (happened Friday), but we see the potential for this simple turn to develop into a much more substantial decline, as the fundamentals behind the push higher were not all that strong to begin with.
came dramatic range surprises within
Everything pretty much came within the range of expectations so there were no dramatic surprises here.
benefit capacity competition consumers
Consumers would benefit from more refinery capacity and more competition in the refinery business.
although boost chilly current expected helped northeast
Current chilly temperatures in the Northeast U.S. also helped boost prices, although these are not expected to last.
demand early february forecast persist physical warm
Warm temperatures now forecast to persist on into early February undercut physical demand for heating fuels.
achieve balance bargain bit bottom drop hunting pick selling side trying
We're really just trying to achieve a little bit of a balance between follow-through selling after Tuesday's big drop and a little bit of bargain hunting on the other side of the ring, trying to pick a bottom here.