Stuart Hoffman
Stuart Hoffman
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The underlying message here is that the Fed is rounding for third and heading for home plate. But they are not finished playing yet.
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(Tuesday) won't be the last. This is not the sort of cheap and easy (money) period of the past several years.
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When the economy is growing faster and businesses want to replenish inventories and make the kind of capital expenditures, mergers and acquisitions that outstrip their internal financing, then they will turn to banks.
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We've heard some disappointing reports about the final couple of weeks before the holidays, so we won't see as big of an increase in December, ... but when you combine November and December, this is about the best holiday season we've seen since 1999.
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If we hadn't had Katrina we'd be saying what a bad hurricane (Rita) was, but in the aftermath of Katrina we're saying, 'Boy, aren't we lucky,'
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The CPI captured the center stage as it's the biggest one-month increase in 25 years, ... We certainly know why, with energy prices having skyrocketed.
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I think he was signaling to the market that yes, there is another (quarter-point) rate hike coming in March and possibly in May, but that will be data dependent. He essentially confirmed what the market has already been pricing in, in terms of rate hikes.
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I thought it was a very favorable number for both Wall Street and Main Street, particularly paired with the upward revisions to the previous two months.
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I think the report was quite strong and will ultimately be positive for stocks.
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Our forecasters expect the economy to shake off the effects of last year's hurricanes and surging oil prices.
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I think the Fed will move a quarter of a point at the end of June, then they may pause. I don't think they're going to stop. I don't think the ball game is over. I think if we are in the late innings and it's still a tie between the risks of higher inflation and slower growth, as Dick Fisher did say, this could go into extra innings.
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I think the Fed will look at the core number and determine that it was understated, and still raise rates by a quarter-percentage point at the meeting on November 1.
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Growth is stronger, but inflation is less, so it's still that great combination of strong economic growth with even less inflation than expected that's helping bonds.
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His statements have set up a pause at the June meeting after they move in May. That doesn't mean we are done. He's leaving the door open to resume hikes at subsequent meetings.