Stuart Hoffman
Stuart Hoffman
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The bottom line is that Greenspan is in no way signaling that the Fed's tightening ballgame against inflation is nearly over.
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The bottom line is it is a very solid report, but with continued inflationary pressure building up, it will make it easy for the Fed to conclude (Tuesday's meeting) with a quarter-point increase,
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The NABE panel sees the economy roaring back in early 2006 following the fourth quarter's tepid 1.1 percent growth.
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I think the Fed will move a quarter of a point at the end of June, then they may pause. I don't think they're going to stop. I don't think the ball game is over. I think if we are in the late innings and it's still a tie between the risks of higher inflation and slower growth, as Dick Fisher did say, this could go into extra innings.
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I think the Fed will look at the core number and determine that it was understated, and still raise rates by a quarter-percentage point at the meeting on November 1.
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I think the report was quite strong and will ultimately be positive for stocks.
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His statements have set up a pause at the June meeting after they move in May. That doesn't mean we are done. He's leaving the door open to resume hikes at subsequent meetings.
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Overall, this was kind of a vanilla report. These are solid numbers, but the market had already absorbed the fact May was a good month.
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Clearly the Fed's main eye is on inflation. They are more worried about inflation because they view the setback to economic growth as temporary.
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Clearly the Fed's main eye is on inflation, ... They are more worried about inflation because they view the setback to economic growth as temporary.
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At the same time, many retailers and the automakers have had good June numbers, despite the rise in oil prices (over the last month), ... Overall, there's some relief right now that the economy is indeed strong, but not overheating.
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This is in spite of gasoline rebounding 10 to 15 cents in January. This also squares with the jobless claims data.
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He's saying the economy is healthy. Inflation is OK for now, but it could become a problem, so we're not done raising rates yet.
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Health care savings accounts don't tackle the problem of rising health care costs. This is not an attempt to rein in the cost of health care. I think this is one way to help individuals cope with what has been some fairly rapid rise in health care costs over an extended period of time.