Stuart Hoffman
Stuart Hoffman
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If you take into account the revisions, the average for the last three months are still very strong. It's consistent with the housing starts number. People are still active in home buying. This decline in January is probably a month dip. It's a head-fake.
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The economy is regaining momentum and will have a very solid first half of the year. We all feel more confident than we did three months ago, when we were still wondering about the impact of the hurricanes.
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The economy is off to a strong start in 2006 and has fully rebounded from the fourth-quarter setback.
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The first half of the decade has not been good for Pittsburgh and Southwestern Pennsylvania in the sense of economic growth. But for this year, I believe we have turned the corner.
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The underlying message here is that the Fed is rounding for third and heading for home plate. But they are not finished playing yet.
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These are exactly the kinds of things the Fed likes too see. Signs of a slowing in housing and still-contained inflation are the kinds of numbers that speak to the Fed stopping in May, making that their last rate hike.
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He agrees that another ... rate hike at the March 28 (meeting) will be needed.
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Inflation, it's been a clean sweep for July. We learned earlier this month wages were unchanged, yesterday producer prices fell again, and this morning you're right on the money, relatively benign consumer price inflation report. No problem.