Stuart Hoffman
Stuart Hoffman
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Inflation, it's been a clean sweep for July. We learned earlier this month wages were unchanged, yesterday producer prices fell again, and this morning you're right on the money, relatively benign consumer price inflation report. No problem.
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If you take into account the revisions, the average for the last three months are still very strong. It's consistent with the housing starts number. People are still active in home buying. This decline in January is probably a month dip. It's a head-fake.
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It's clear that job growth in the last three months has been as slow as it has been in quite a while. It is a picture of a somewhat slower or weaker job market.
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The economy is regaining momentum and will have a very solid first half of the year. We all feel more confident than we did three months ago, when we were still wondering about the impact of the hurricanes.
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(Tuesday) won't be the last. This is not the sort of cheap and easy (money) period of the past several years.
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When the economy is growing faster and businesses want to replenish inventories and make the kind of capital expenditures, mergers and acquisitions that outstrip their internal financing, then they will turn to banks.
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We've heard some disappointing reports about the final couple of weeks before the holidays, so we won't see as big of an increase in December, ... but when you combine November and December, this is about the best holiday season we've seen since 1999.
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If we hadn't had Katrina we'd be saying what a bad hurricane (Rita) was, but in the aftermath of Katrina we're saying, 'Boy, aren't we lucky,'
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The CPI captured the center stage as it's the biggest one-month increase in 25 years, ... We certainly know why, with energy prices having skyrocketed.
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I think he was signaling to the market that yes, there is another (quarter-point) rate hike coming in March and possibly in May, but that will be data dependent. He essentially confirmed what the market has already been pricing in, in terms of rate hikes.
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I thought it was a very favorable number for both Wall Street and Main Street, particularly paired with the upward revisions to the previous two months.
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I think the report was quite strong and will ultimately be positive for stocks.
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Our forecasters expect the economy to shake off the effects of last year's hurricanes and surging oil prices.
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I think the Fed will move a quarter of a point at the end of June, then they may pause. I don't think they're going to stop. I don't think the ball game is over. I think if we are in the late innings and it's still a tie between the risks of higher inflation and slower growth, as Dick Fisher did say, this could go into extra innings.