Stuart Hoffman
Stuart Hoffman
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I think the Fed will move a quarter of a point at the end of June, then they may pause. I don't think they're going to stop. I don't think the ball game is over. I think if we are in the late innings and it's still a tie between the risks of higher inflation and slower growth, as Dick Fisher did say, this could go into extra innings.
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Growth is stronger, but inflation is less, so it's still that great combination of strong economic growth with even less inflation than expected that's helping bonds.
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He's saying the economy is healthy. Inflation is OK for now, but it could become a problem, so we're not done raising rates yet.
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Inflation, it's been a clean sweep for July. We learned earlier this month wages were unchanged, yesterday producer prices fell again, and this morning you're right on the money, relatively benign consumer price inflation report. No problem.
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Clearly the Fed's main eye is on inflation. They are more worried about inflation because they view the setback to economic growth as temporary.
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Clearly the Fed's main eye is on inflation, ... They are more worried about inflation because they view the setback to economic growth as temporary.
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The bottom line is that Greenspan is in no way signaling that the Fed's tightening ballgame against inflation is nearly over.
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It was a good report right through. As you look through the report there is a noticeable absence of inflation on a broad basis. The numbers, if anything, are steady to lower on inflation and show that it just isn't at all a problem for the economy or the Fed.
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These are exactly the kinds of things the Fed likes too see. Signs of a slowing in housing and still-contained inflation are the kinds of numbers that speak to the Fed stopping in May, making that their last rate hike.
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(Tuesday) won't be the last. This is not the sort of cheap and easy (money) period of the past several years.
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When the economy is growing faster and businesses want to replenish inventories and make the kind of capital expenditures, mergers and acquisitions that outstrip their internal financing, then they will turn to banks.
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We've heard some disappointing reports about the final couple of weeks before the holidays, so we won't see as big of an increase in December, ... but when you combine November and December, this is about the best holiday season we've seen since 1999.
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If we hadn't had Katrina we'd be saying what a bad hurricane (Rita) was, but in the aftermath of Katrina we're saying, 'Boy, aren't we lucky,'
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The CPI captured the center stage as it's the biggest one-month increase in 25 years, ... We certainly know why, with energy prices having skyrocketed.