Steve Barrow
Steve Barrow
Steve Barrowis a British reggae historian, writer and producer...
buying data fed inflation opportunity saying speakers vigilant
Fed speakers are saying they are going to be vigilant on inflation and if the data suggests they haven't done enough, they will do more. It's a short-term buying opportunity for the dollar.
bit clearly data dependent dollar expect fed hence starting view volatile
But clearly any view on the Fed now is dependent on how the data comes through and hence we can expect the dollar to be a bit more volatile on data releases, starting with Friday's payrolls.
earlier economy far fed general good help indicator key number seen selling strength
We've seen some selling earlier this week, but a good number will show the general strength of the U.S. economy and help the dollar. Payrolls will be the key indicator as far as the Fed is concerned.
dashed fed likely process support thoughts
Any thoughts that the Fed may end the tightening process are likely to be dashed and that will probably support the dollar.
closest fed official peak perhaps rates suggesting
This is perhaps the closest any Fed official has come to suggesting the peak on rates for now.
early factor fed pauses risk stopped supporting
If the Fed pauses at 4.5 percent, the risk would be the Fed has stopped too early and they would have to restart the tightening process. That would be a big supporting factor for the dollar.
clear data december divert failed fed following hurricane minutes monetary policy saw weaker
The Fed has been on 'autopilot' with its monetary tightening so that even bouts of weaker data, such as we saw after hurricane Katrina, failed to divert the Fed off course. But now, following the minutes of the December meeting, it is clear that policy will become more data dependent.
again expect fed focus funds higher levels next per year
The focus next year will again be on the Fed -- we expect Fed funds to go up to 5 per cent, higher than levels priced into the markets.
tough
We think it is unlikely, but it's a tough call.
comments looks recent remain sights stumbling
Our sights remain on a plunge to 80 cents. If Duisenberg's most recent comments are correct, it looks as if intervention is stumbling already.
economy evidence recovery strong
Do we think it's going to happened? Not in the U.S., so then not in Europe, ... But then there's no evidence that the economy is going to show strong recovery either.
believe definitely market next push time year
Will the market push on for $1.05 this year and $1.10 by this time next year? We definitely believe that it will be the latter.
change convinced cut expect market
We don't expect a cut and we're not even convinced there will be a change in the Fed's bias. If the market is factoring in a cut, then it may come a cropper as a result.
deliver euro fact hike hikes pull rate skeptical whether year
I'm still skeptical whether we will see a hike from the ECB this year. The fact the ECB won't deliver on rate hikes this year will probably pull the euro back.