Steve Barrow
Steve Barrow
Steve Barrowis a British reggae historian, writer and producer...
clear data december divert failed fed following hurricane minutes monetary policy saw weaker
The Fed has been on 'autopilot' with its monetary tightening so that even bouts of weaker data, such as we saw after hurricane Katrina, failed to divert the Fed off course. But now, following the minutes of the December meeting, it is clear that policy will become more data dependent.
bank canadian currency face hike meeting next performing rate retail slightly week
The Canadian currency is still performing very well especially in the face of a slightly disappointing retail number. The Bank of Canada's meeting next week will be the focus. A rate hike next week is most likely.
economy evidence recovery strong
Do we think it's going to happened? Not in the U.S., so then not in Europe, ... But then there's no evidence that the economy is going to show strong recovery either.
bank central euro european help interest raises
There may be some help for the euro if the European Central Bank raises interest rates,
again banks central comments crucial intervene larry looking prop summers tone towards treasury
Everyone is looking towards (U.S. Treasury Secretary) Larry Summers from the U.S. to tone down his comments on the dollar. His comments at the G20 are crucial if central banks are to intervene again to prop up the euro.
closes knows london soon
Everyone knows that as soon as London closes tonight, the U.S. won't intervene.
bit brought comments happens hopeful perhaps pushing slightly trade
Dollar/yen is slightly higher, perhaps as a consequence of that, with some of the comments sounding a little bit more hopeful in the sense of them not pushing on the anti-China trade legislation that they've brought to Congress. But we'll have to see what happens when they get back (to the U.S.).
decide heading money problem targets
This is a problem of their own making, ... having two targets for money supply, which is heading higher, and inflation, which is on the way down. The ECB has to decide on one target.
closest fed official peak perhaps rates suggesting
This is perhaps the closest any Fed official has come to suggesting the peak on rates for now.
comments looks recent remain sights stumbling
Our sights remain on a plunge to 80 cents. If Duisenberg's most recent comments are correct, it looks as if intervention is stumbling already.
buying data fed inflation opportunity saying speakers vigilant
Fed speakers are saying they are going to be vigilant on inflation and if the data suggests they haven't done enough, they will do more. It's a short-term buying opportunity for the dollar.
consumer demand message raise slow spending view
I don't think the bank's message has really changed. The one view is that if consumer demand doesn't slow down, it will have to raise rates. But the other view is that consumer spending will come down.
bad driven imports largely news oil reflects rise slide strong underlying
However, it is not all bad news as the slide was largely driven by a strong 27.3% rise in imports. While this reflects oil prices, to some extent, underlying imports are rising, which bodes well for the economy.
expressed interested likely market members opinions whether
The market will be interested to see whether any members expressed opinions about the likely end of the cycle.