Shane Oliver
Shane Oliver
bit dramatic exports improved looking past
Exports probably would have improved a little bit but not much, so it's really just a continuation of the past - we're not looking for a dramatic change.
global growth insulated looking mining portraying rely resources returns stocks tragic woes
Returns aren't going to be as tragic as some are portraying because the mining stocks are still looking fine. The resources stocks rely more on global growth so, to a degree, they're insulated from many of the woes afflicting our own economy.
attractive based bond compared current earnings fair level remains value yields
Based on the current level of bond yields and earnings fair value around 5 600 points, the dividend yield remains attractive compared to alternative investments.
data economic generally numbers rates recent reserve rise run soft support
Recent economic data has been on the soft side. There is nothing in the recent run of generally soft numbers that would support another rise in rates by the Reserve Bank.
globally hostage largely market
Our market will be largely hostage to what's going on globally this week.
argued australian collapse commodity dollar europe fall few global growth impending prices seems strong stronger telling thanks time
Some have argued the fall in the Australian dollar at a time when commodity prices are still strong is telling us global growth is about to collapse. However, there are few indicators of any impending collapse in global growth or commodity prices. In fact, global growth seems to be strengthening thanks to stronger growth in Europe and Japan.
areas consumer exports fill help hole investment left luckily mining plug slowing
We need other areas to fill the hole left by slowing consumer spending. Luckily mining investment and exports are increasing, which will help plug the gap.
approach past six
It is a significant psychological milestone, the approach of which has triggered some profit-taking over the past six weeks.
build capacity coming economic encourage growth investment living maintain mostly needs productive strong sustain
Long-term economic growth is not sustainable if it's coming mostly from remittances. To maintain a strong living standard, the Philippines needs to encourage investment and that will build productive capacity and sustain consumption over the long-term.
assessment australian continue earnings global higher mainstream remains shares slightly stronger thanks yields
Our assessment remains that Australian shares will continue to outperform mainstream global shares thanks to a combination of higher dividend yields and slightly stronger earnings growth.
assessment bounce house mark prices start sustained unlikely
Our assessment is that house prices may have a bounce but this is unlikely to mark the start of a sustained recovery.
assessment australian continue course earnings global growth higher mainstream next resources shares slightly stronger thanks
Our assessment is that Australian shares will continue to outperform mainstream global shares over the next year, thanks to a combination of higher dividend yields, slightly stronger earnings growth (helped of course by the resources sector) and franking credits.
bank central consumer economic fuel interest prices rates rising slowing spending
Rising fuel prices will keep a lid on consumer spending for some time, slowing economic growth. The central bank will keep interest rates on hold.
fall lose market per points wall
I don't think we will fall as much as Wall Street. Our market will lose 50 points or 1 per cent.