Shane Oliver
Shane Oliver
bank both commodity concerned economy given global head higher knock pressure retail strength
The bank is concerned about inflationary pressure in the economy given the strength in the global economy and higher commodity prices. It will be a knock on the head for both retail and housing.
bank benign cheap consumer environment extremely fuel inflation interest items leave plenty prices range rates reasons remain retail slowing spending thanks underlying weak
Slowing housing, weak consumer spending and benign underlying inflation give the bank plenty of reasons to leave interest rates right where they are. Fuel prices are up, but thanks to an extremely competitive retail environment and cheap imports, prices for a whole range of items remain weak.
bit consistent consumer decline demand economy expect fall pull rate starting
It's consistent with an economy that's starting to pull back up in Korea, with a bit of consumer demand starting to come through again. I would expect the unemployment rate will start to decline and will fall further.
cent consensus december growth per profit year
Consensus expectations are for profit growth of 13.4 per cent for the year to the December quarter.
appears correction due period
A correction or period of consolidation is due and this now appears to be happening.
bank build exactly help increased investment pressure reserve wants
This is exactly what the Reserve Bank wants because increased investment reduces inflationary pressure and will help build capacity.
asian past stocks themselves turned
Asian stocks have completely turned themselves around the past decade, and they're going higher.
asian crisis far risk situation
The situation is far healthier. The risk of another Asian crisis is very low.
australian earnings market share strong thanks
So on this basis, and thanks to very strong earnings growth, the Australian share market is still cheap.
lasting relevance zealand
Developments in New Zealand are of little relevance to Australia, so won't have a lasting impact.
effort largely linked risk
You need to put effort into determining the return, which is largely linked to the risk of the borrower.
global growth insulated looking mining portraying rely resources returns stocks tragic woes
Returns aren't going to be as tragic as some are portraying because the mining stocks are still looking fine. The resources stocks rely more on global growth so, to a degree, they're insulated from many of the woes afflicting our own economy.
australian fact global indicate offer return shares similar trading
The fact that Australian shares are now trading on a similar pe to global shares does not indicate that they are overvalued or that global shares now offer better return prospects.
bit dramatic exports improved looking past
Exports probably would have improved a little bit but not much, so it's really just a continuation of the past - we're not looking for a dramatic change.