Shane Oliver
Shane Oliver
assessment australian continue earnings global higher mainstream remains shares slightly stronger thanks yields
Our assessment remains that Australian shares will continue to outperform mainstream global shares thanks to a combination of higher dividend yields and slightly stronger earnings growth.
assessment australian continue course earnings global growth higher mainstream next resources shares slightly stronger thanks
Our assessment is that Australian shares will continue to outperform mainstream global shares over the next year, thanks to a combination of higher dividend yields, slightly stronger earnings growth (helped of course by the resources sector) and franking credits.
along bit chinese continues economy few investment motor past solid toward
The Chinese economy continues to motor along at a pretty solid pace. There has been a bit of a rebalancing of the economy over the past few years away from fixed-asset investment toward the consumer.
continues data fed homes market pressure sales ultimately
The homes sales data is more important, because if the market continues to slow, that will ultimately take pressure off the U.S. Fed Reserve.
asian crisis far risk situation
The situation is far healthier. The risk of another Asian crisis is very low.
australian earnings market share strong thanks
So on this basis, and thanks to very strong earnings growth, the Australian share market is still cheap.
cent consensus december growth per profit year
Consensus expectations are for profit growth of 13.4 per cent for the year to the December quarter.
areas consumer exports fill help hole investment left luckily mining plug slowing
We need other areas to fill the hole left by slowing consumer spending. Luckily mining investment and exports are increasing, which will help plug the gap.
decision head knock recovery retail sales seeing slow
Today's decision will slow the recovery we've been seeing in retail sales and housing. It will be a knock on the head for both.
fall lose market per points wall
I don't think we will fall as much as Wall Street. Our market will lose 50 points or 1 per cent.
attractive based bond compared current earnings fair level remains value yields
Based on the current level of bond yields and earnings fair value around 5 600 points, the dividend yield remains attractive compared to alternative investments.
global growth insulated looking mining portraying rely resources returns stocks tragic woes
Returns aren't going to be as tragic as some are portraying because the mining stocks are still looking fine. The resources stocks rely more on global growth so, to a degree, they're insulated from many of the woes afflicting our own economy.
bit dramatic exports improved looking past
Exports probably would have improved a little bit but not much, so it's really just a continuation of the past - we're not looking for a dramatic change.
bank both commodity concerned economy given global head higher knock pressure retail strength
The bank is concerned about inflationary pressure in the economy given the strength in the global economy and higher commodity prices. It will be a knock on the head for both retail and housing.