Shane Oliver
Shane Oliver
asian crisis far risk situation
The situation is far healthier. The risk of another Asian crisis is very low.
effort largely linked risk
You need to put effort into determining the return, which is largely linked to the risk of the borrower.
australian bubble china enthusiasm forms resources risk shares though upside
An upside risk for Australian shares though is that a bubble forms on the back of enthusiasm for China and resources stocks.
agencies blow borrower buy companies corporate credit default guide inflation people portfolio provide rating rely risk takes
In corporate debt, you have the credit risk of borrower defaulting and that's why people rely on the rating agencies to provide a guide on the default risk, and the other risk is that there could be a blow out in yields, for instance, you buy a portfolio and inflation takes off or companies go bust.
australian earnings market share strong thanks
So on this basis, and thanks to very strong earnings growth, the Australian share market is still cheap.
cent consensus december growth per profit year
Consensus expectations are for profit growth of 13.4 per cent for the year to the December quarter.
areas consumer exports fill help hole investment left luckily mining plug slowing
We need other areas to fill the hole left by slowing consumer spending. Luckily mining investment and exports are increasing, which will help plug the gap.
decision head knock recovery retail sales seeing slow
Today's decision will slow the recovery we've been seeing in retail sales and housing. It will be a knock on the head for both.
fall lose market per points wall
I don't think we will fall as much as Wall Street. Our market will lose 50 points or 1 per cent.
attractive based bond compared current earnings fair level remains value yields
Based on the current level of bond yields and earnings fair value around 5 600 points, the dividend yield remains attractive compared to alternative investments.
global growth insulated looking mining portraying rely resources returns stocks tragic woes
Returns aren't going to be as tragic as some are portraying because the mining stocks are still looking fine. The resources stocks rely more on global growth so, to a degree, they're insulated from many of the woes afflicting our own economy.
bit dramatic exports improved looking past
Exports probably would have improved a little bit but not much, so it's really just a continuation of the past - we're not looking for a dramatic change.
bank both commodity concerned economy given global head higher knock pressure retail strength
The bank is concerned about inflationary pressure in the economy given the strength in the global economy and higher commodity prices. It will be a knock on the head for both retail and housing.
bail coal iron jump prices rely shows trade
It shows you can't rely on another big jump in coal and iron ore prices to bail out the trade deficit.