Shane Oliver
Shane Oliver
argued australian collapse commodity dollar europe fall few global growth impending prices seems strong stronger telling thanks time
Some have argued the fall in the Australian dollar at a time when commodity prices are still strong is telling us global growth is about to collapse. However, there are few indicators of any impending collapse in global growth or commodity prices. In fact, global growth seems to be strengthening thanks to stronger growth in Europe and Japan.
asian crisis far risk situation
The situation is far healthier. The risk of another Asian crisis is very low.
australian earnings market share strong thanks
So on this basis, and thanks to very strong earnings growth, the Australian share market is still cheap.
cent consensus december growth per profit year
Consensus expectations are for profit growth of 13.4 per cent for the year to the December quarter.
areas consumer exports fill help hole investment left luckily mining plug slowing
We need other areas to fill the hole left by slowing consumer spending. Luckily mining investment and exports are increasing, which will help plug the gap.
decision head knock recovery retail sales seeing slow
Today's decision will slow the recovery we've been seeing in retail sales and housing. It will be a knock on the head for both.
fall lose market per points wall
I don't think we will fall as much as Wall Street. Our market will lose 50 points or 1 per cent.
attractive based bond compared current earnings fair level remains value yields
Based on the current level of bond yields and earnings fair value around 5 600 points, the dividend yield remains attractive compared to alternative investments.
global growth insulated looking mining portraying rely resources returns stocks tragic woes
Returns aren't going to be as tragic as some are portraying because the mining stocks are still looking fine. The resources stocks rely more on global growth so, to a degree, they're insulated from many of the woes afflicting our own economy.
bit dramatic exports improved looking past
Exports probably would have improved a little bit but not much, so it's really just a continuation of the past - we're not looking for a dramatic change.
bank both commodity concerned economy given global head higher knock pressure retail strength
The bank is concerned about inflationary pressure in the economy given the strength in the global economy and higher commodity prices. It will be a knock on the head for both retail and housing.
bail coal iron jump prices rely shows trade
It shows you can't rely on another big jump in coal and iron ore prices to bail out the trade deficit.
bit consistent consumer decline demand economy expect fall pull rate starting
It's consistent with an economy that's starting to pull back up in Korea, with a bit of consumer demand starting to come through again. I would expect the unemployment rate will start to decline and will fall further.
australian close easing fed interest investors likely monetary policy quite rates renewed shifting starting toward widening wonder
U.S. interest rates are pretty close to the top. By year- end it is quite likely the Fed will be shifting toward easing monetary policy and investors will be starting to wonder about a renewed widening in the Australian and U.S. interest-rate gap.