Robert DiClemente
Robert DiClemente
afford domestic err external fed growth inflation labor low markets side
With labor markets eroding rapidly, external growth faltering badly, and domestic inflation low and falling, the Fed can afford to err on the side of accommodation.
against economy-and-economics effects expect fighting interest rates rising seems side strong waste
Fighting against rising interest rates just seems a waste of time. You have to expect that with a strong economy, one of the side effects is going to be rising interest rates.
fate hinges severity
The severity of the downturn still hinges on the fate of consumers.
beyond cannot higher inflation move officials possible rule tangible
With higher inflation still a tangible threat, officials cannot rule out the possible need to move beyond neutral.
energy fed head lasting likely prices prompt rising risk trend
The risk of spillover from the rising trend in energy prices will likely prompt the Fed to head off more lasting damage.
best consumer debt effect equity financial hardest hit households largest likely limited overall past position shocks since slide took
The wealthiest households took the hardest hit from the equity slide over the past two years and had the largest debt exposure. Since these high-income households are in the best position to withstand deterioration in their financial positions, the shocks are likely to have a limited effect on overall consumer spending.
action early equivalent expect generally guides language market next people
People feel generally that we will see some equivalent forward-looking language that guides market expectations to expect action at least into the early part of next year.
bond catch continues guard market viewed
The sell-off in the US bond market continues to catch many market participants off guard but has to be viewed as a stabilization in the (economic) outlook.
industrial period point production risen since succeeding turning unlikely
At each such turning point since 1960, industrial production has risen notably over the succeeding 12 months. This period is unlikely to be an exception.
ask fed greenspan man proceed question respect role unique
It's not just how does the Fed proceed without Greenspan, but what's the man going to do. Every question you ask with respect to the Greenspan Fed has this very unique feature, which is his role and his stature.
activity businesses obvious production projects sort variety wary
It's obvious there's a lot of hand-to-mouth production going on, as businesses are still very wary about undertaking big projects or any sort of new activity for a variety of reasons, some intangible.
everybody power pricing serious
In the aggregate, if everybody has pricing power, then we have a serious problem.
energy negative period prices recall
I don't recall a period where we had this kind of a surge in energy prices and didn't have some kind of negative fall-out.
anecdotal colder depressed early evidence june looks might mistake retailers sales shows sign view wave ways weather
This to me looks more like what retailers had said, that colder weather in May might have depressed sales in ways that are not really fundamental, ... Early anecdotal evidence for June shows a snap-back. It would be a big mistake to view this as a sign of a new wave of retrenchment.