Robert DiClemente
Robert DiClemente
afford domestic err external fed growth inflation labor low markets side
With labor markets eroding rapidly, external growth faltering badly, and domestic inflation low and falling, the Fed can afford to err on the side of accommodation.
energy fed head lasting likely prices prompt rising risk trend
The risk of spillover from the rising trend in energy prices will likely prompt the Fed to head off more lasting damage.
alive cannot chances cut fed further keeping rate ruled
With surging productivity keeping alive chances of further disinflation, even another Fed rate cut cannot be ruled out,
ask fed greenspan man proceed question respect role unique
It's not just how does the Fed proceed without Greenspan, but what's the man going to do. Every question you ask with respect to the Greenspan Fed has this very unique feature, which is his role and his stature.
anchor explicit fed financial inflation markets mechanism sees target
He sees an explicit medium-term inflation target as an anchor for financial markets and a mechanism for Fed accountability.
awkward critical doubt fed forecast inflation level nearer rates
You've got this awkward confluence of a Fed that's getting nearer and nearer to some critical level of rates and an inflation forecast that has been more in doubt or more in play than it has been for some time,
bond catch continues guard market viewed
The sell-off in the US bond market continues to catch many market participants off guard but has to be viewed as a stabilization in the (economic) outlook.
beyond cannot higher inflation move officials possible rule tangible
With higher inflation still a tangible threat, officials cannot rule out the possible need to move beyond neutral.
anecdotal colder depressed early evidence june looks might mistake retailers sales shows sign view wave ways weather
This to me looks more like what retailers had said, that colder weather in May might have depressed sales in ways that are not really fundamental, ... Early anecdotal evidence for June shows a snap-back. It would be a big mistake to view this as a sign of a new wave of retrenchment.
alter chances faster fuel inflation prospect recovery remain
True, the fuel for faster recovery is amassing. But that prospect does not materially alter chances that inflation will also remain well anchored.
based corporate earnings financial focused gloom labor latest markets missing necessary restore risk third turnaround
While financial markets are focused on all the gloom ... they risk missing the incipient turnaround in corporate profits. Based on the latest GDP figures, corporate earnings probably bottomed in the third quarter. Firms are making the necessary adjustments to restore profitability by reining in their costs, especially labor compensation.
above aggregate conditions continued demand estimates financial highly interest low maintain makers period policy potential propel rates reasonable
Under these conditions, policy makers will want to maintain a continued period of very low interest rates and highly accommodative financial conditions to propel aggregate demand well above the upper end of reasonable estimates of potential growth,
against economy-and-economics effects expect fighting interest rates rising seems side strong waste
Fighting against rising interest rates just seems a waste of time. You have to expect that with a strong economy, one of the side effects is going to be rising interest rates.
industrial period point production risen since succeeding turning unlikely
At each such turning point since 1960, industrial production has risen notably over the succeeding 12 months. This period is unlikely to be an exception.