Robert DiClemente
Robert DiClemente
above aggregate conditions continued demand estimates financial highly interest low maintain makers period policy potential propel rates reasonable
Under these conditions, policy makers will want to maintain a continued period of very low interest rates and highly accommodative financial conditions to propel aggregate demand well above the upper end of reasonable estimates of potential growth,
against economy-and-economics effects expect fighting interest rates rising seems side strong waste
Fighting against rising interest rates just seems a waste of time. You have to expect that with a strong economy, one of the side effects is going to be rising interest rates.
alive cannot chances cut fed further keeping rate ruled
With surging productivity keeping alive chances of further disinflation, even another Fed rate cut cannot be ruled out,
budgets changes corrected growth jarring local policy rates rather relative small spending state tax
State and local budgets can be corrected by small changes in the relative growth rates of spending and tax revenues, rather than by jarring policy initiatives.
additional challenge data might moving officials present rates recent risk
For the Fed, recent developments present an additional challenge because data hint that officials might need to risk an overshoot, moving rates into restrictive territory.
awkward critical doubt fed forecast inflation level nearer rates
You've got this awkward confluence of a Fed that's getting nearer and nearer to some critical level of rates and an inflation forecast that has been more in doubt or more in play than it has been for some time,
fate hinges severity
The severity of the downturn still hinges on the fate of consumers.
afford domestic err external fed growth inflation labor low markets side
With labor markets eroding rapidly, external growth faltering badly, and domestic inflation low and falling, the Fed can afford to err on the side of accommodation.
beyond cannot higher inflation move officials possible rule tangible
With higher inflation still a tangible threat, officials cannot rule out the possible need to move beyond neutral.
energy fed head lasting likely prices prompt rising risk trend
The risk of spillover from the rising trend in energy prices will likely prompt the Fed to head off more lasting damage.
best consumer debt effect equity financial hardest hit households largest likely limited overall past position shocks since slide took
The wealthiest households took the hardest hit from the equity slide over the past two years and had the largest debt exposure. Since these high-income households are in the best position to withstand deterioration in their financial positions, the shocks are likely to have a limited effect on overall consumer spending.
action early equivalent expect generally guides language market next people
People feel generally that we will see some equivalent forward-looking language that guides market expectations to expect action at least into the early part of next year.
bond catch continues guard market viewed
The sell-off in the US bond market continues to catch many market participants off guard but has to be viewed as a stabilization in the (economic) outlook.
industrial period point production risen since succeeding turning unlikely
At each such turning point since 1960, industrial production has risen notably over the succeeding 12 months. This period is unlikely to be an exception.