Richard Jerram
Richard Jerram
free people ride risk
There is a risk of people overreacting. The five-year free ride comes to an end, or at least that's the fear.
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We're seeing an improvement in output, which seems to be driven by both the export side and the domestic demand side, and we're seeing a gradual diminution of deflation.
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Price rises are gradually feeding down the production chain. This is starting to affect consumer prices and would make the exit from deflation more solid.
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Price rises are gradually feeding down the production chain.
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I think the real question is whether growth in 2001 is positive or negative. And the way things are going, it's looking increasingly likely there's going to be a negative number.
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It is difficult to find any part of the economic puzzle that would lead you to be less confident about the full-year 2006 outlook than you were six months ago.
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Some people are thinking that is a little bit too small to get the banking system back on its feet.
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Japan is forecast to be the fastest-growing G7 economy over the next two years. The biggest contribution to growth is coming from private sector demand.
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Overall, we feel that views on the economy have probably become excessively negative in recent months on the basis of the performance of two economic indicators: exports and industrial production.
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Three months ago, the debate was whether the economy was still declining or going sideways. Now the debate is whether the economy is going sideways or whether it is improving.
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It has always worked in the past. It's always been a turning point in the economy when measures have been taken to bail out the financial system.
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It's quite encouraging that Japan is still posting strong export growth. This bodes well for the first-quarter economic outlook.
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It's really rather worrying that six weeks into the job, he still hasn't figured out the difference. It does suggest there's quite a nasty policy mistake coming our way and quite a nasty recession.
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It's very encouraging in these figures to see that employment is picking up. That's going to help domestic output and domestic incomes. The trends are all very positive.