Richard Jerram
Richard Jerram
both demand domestic driven export gradual improvement seeing seems side
We're seeing an improvement in output, which seems to be driven by both the export side and the domestic demand side, and we're seeing a gradual diminution of deflation.
debate declining economy months sideways three whether
Three months ago, the debate was whether the economy was still declining or going sideways. Now the debate is whether the economy is going sideways or whether it is improving.
economy expand grow somewhere
We think the U.S. could expand by around 3% while Japan's economy could grow somewhere between 3.5% and 4%.
ability balance banks capital credit growth improve position rate role sheet
As the capital position of banks improves, so does their ability to take balance sheet risk, which should improve credit provision. The growth rate is slow, but is accelerating and should play a more constructive role in the economy.
change claiming economic economy fact fiscal gone government market matter mere percent reason
The government still is claiming that the economy is okay. And if the economy's okay, then there's no reason to change it's fiscal stance. The mere fact that the market has gone down 10 percent doesn't really matter in economic terms.
domestic drive revival start steadily
We see the domestic revival as steadily broadening out and in the end that should start to drive production.
exports felt industrial seem signs
Exports seem to be stalling and there are some signs this is already being felt by industrial production,
america company fairly woke
We woke up and America was down pretty hard. Then we had a fairly big construction company go bust.
companies debt forgiveness issue
There is also the issue of debt forgiveness for some construction companies by banks,
free people ride risk
There is a risk of people overreacting. The five-year free ride comes to an end, or at least that's the fear.
affect consumer deflation exit feeding gradually price prices production rises starting
Price rises are gradually feeding down the production chain. This is starting to affect consumer prices and would make the exit from deflation more solid.
feeding gradually price production rises
Price rises are gradually feeding down the production chain.
bail economy financial measures point taken turning worked
It has always worked in the past. It's always been a turning point in the economy when measures have been taken to bail out the financial system.
confident difficult economic lead less months outlook puzzle six
It is difficult to find any part of the economic puzzle that would lead you to be less confident about the full-year 2006 outlook than you were six months ago.