Richard Cripps
Richard Cripps
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We're looking at a 12 percent decline in earnings this year for the S&P 500, and that's the sharpest decline we've had since the last recession. The confidence level that one has in looking at those earnings is very low.
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The key area to watch is what financial stocks will do. They've been performing well and it's clearly a pattern of higher highs. If they take this (interest rate hike) well, my confidence that we're getting to the end of these Fed hikes will increase.
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The big fundamental for financial markets is the economy and earnings beyond interest rates.
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I'm of the view that the Nasdaq really goes into a consolidation, and historically, for technology, it really performs fairly poorly in the April-to-June time frame. So my view is that Nasdaq, on the whole, pretty much always goes into a consolidation pattern, not much upside from the current level.
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And while you are waiting, you get a 3 percent yield and one of the strongest balance sheets in corporate America.
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Tradition drives these international markets very, very hard. The concept is interesting, but inevitably, they will find it as difficult, if not more difficult than Europe.
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Either the fundamentals have to grow much faster or the stock has got to come down.
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Between October and March, the Nasdaq has almost doubled in price. Even these companies that have been cut in half are still three or four times more than they were a year ago.
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You get a kick in the market that draws in the buyers. I think we're in a trading range and are getting into the bottom half of that trading range.
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The Nasdaq is simply crowding out the rest of the market. If you are a portfolio manager, you have to own some of these (technology) names.
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The Nasdaq is increasingly driven by a lot of day-to-day momentum players. Technically, (the Nasdaq) was oversold and they came rushing in. I think it's more of a bounce from yesterday's sharp sell-off.
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Any major calamity we've witnessed, the banks have been some of the best performers.
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You've lost your earnings catalyst so we're moving away from the second quarter. With the economy moderating you're looking at earnings estimates that are too high and have to come down.
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You're getting money flowing back into some of these big stocks and the tone is good. What's powering it is optimism that at some point and time, we're going to get this final turn in earnings -- it's buying with the thought that you don't fight the Fed.