Philip Shaw
Philip Shaw
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I was surprised that the relationship between intelligence and brain structure changed so much as a child grows up. In early childhood, the smartest children had a thinner cortex -- this is the opposite of what you'd expect. By late childhood, the pattern had changed completely.
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We are increasingly nervous about our call for a quarter-point rate cut in February, even if we are not ready to throw in the towel. Continued sluggish growth should mean the next couple of years see a degree of disinflation, justifying lower interest rates.
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The PMI is a big upside surprise ... and is at least hinting that services growth stepped up at the end of last year.
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If there are any signs that the economy will grow at or above trend, then the MPC will be even more reluctant to cut interest rates again.
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The economy has been growing at a sub-par pace for five quarters now and we cannot see that situation changing over the next year or so.
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The main point though is that output growth has now been below trend for five quarters and we can't see that changing over the next year or so,
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We will see nervous trading ahead, as we have seen from Cisco that the worst is not yet over for corporate earnings.
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It was a case of the panic being overdone, ... U.S. institutional investors were going to sell their European assets, but the coordinated action removed the fear about a weaker euro.
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The strength of high street activity during the month (November) reflects an abrupt turn in the weather driving demand for winter wear.
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And we find the most intelligent children started off with a relatively thin cortex, but it then got thicker relatively rapidly, reached its peak thickness in certain key areas several years later but then also got thinner quicker.
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There's still a lot of confusion about what the sectors mean. I think it's going to take some time for the individual analysts to become familiar with their new companies.
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Continued developments in Iraq will be the main factor driving markets.
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We think the chances of a hike next week are virtually zero.
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Marks & Spencer has got its act together, ... There has been a UK retail boom in December but January has gone off to a slow start.