Paul Kasriel
Paul Kasriel
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Those who have lived through the 1970s remember the tremendous toll that accelerating inflation took on the economy and vowed to never make that mistake again,
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When the fog of war is finally lifted, we may find that economic growth remains weak because monetary policy turns out to be less accommodative than the Fed thought,
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We should get a little better growth in the second half -- but not enough. By the end of the year, maybe we will have enough to stabilize the unemployment rate, but I think we will probably see a further drift up in the unemployment rate.
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O'Neill was like the offensive line of the Green Bay Packers playing in a dome -- they can't hear signals. O'Neill couldn't hear the signals the White House was sending, and they got rid of him. Presumably, Snow has better hearing.
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There are a lot of crosscurrents now, but falling yields might indicate that demand for credit is slowing down and that the Fed, by holding the fed funds rate where it is, is actually keeping rates all along the curve from falling to their equilibrium level, or to the level where would they would more naturally go.
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We really don't want to give Greenspan a grade yet. You want to wait a year or two to see whether the seeds turn to weeds.
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Sustained economic growth is dependent on profit growth. Without profits, there will be no new hiring of workers and no new capital spending.
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I think there are some members who would prefer that the funds rate be at 3 percent, but I suspect there is a little concern about moving too fast and upsetting the household sector.
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I agree with Gross. It's been refinancing of mortgages -- basically eating into one's seed corn -- that has been sustaining consumer spending. When that peters out, it's not clear what's going to kick in.
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When you're the world's banker, you really need to maintain the world's confidence in you and your currency. If you start telling creditors you're going to pay them back in currency that doesn't buy as much, they won't want to bank with you any more.
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A recession is in the eye of the beholder, and the eye of the NBER, but clearly we're struggling here. We're at stall speed and it's not clear what, in the short term, is going to get the economy's nose up.
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In a longer-run sense, I would view it as marginally unproductive, a worsening of the trade-off between growth and inflation, ... But will we be able to detect that? I doubt it.
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If Republicans were to regain control of the Senate, the probabilities of some major tax cuts would go up quite dramatically. If those tax cuts were implemented, this would have a positive impact on both the economy and the stock market.
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If people start losing their jobs, ... it's going to be hard for them to keep current on all that debt.