Paul Kasriel
Paul Kasriel
data pointing toward
The new data are pointing toward a bottoming out in the manufacturing sector,
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The Fed is happy to provide all the reserves the banking system needs, ... It's told the banking system 'Ya'll lend now,' and they're doing it.
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I've thought there would be some moderation in consumer spending this year, but I also thought that job growth would be better at this point than it has been. It may be that consumer spending will moderate even more than what I'm forecasting.
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There may be somebody else taking the baton now, which is not unusual in a recovery. Housing is typically the leader out of the desert to the promised land; but, just like Moses didn't make it to the promised land, as rates rise, housing doesn't quite make it, either. Other sectors do.
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The yield curve has been one of the more reliable indicators of turning points, not necessarily recessions, but slowdowns in the economy.
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A bursting of the housing bubble could result in a severe recession.
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It seems that what it allows you to do is ... stay in business with somewhat of an unfair advantage over your competitors, who still do have to pay their debts and pay interest on those debts.
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You're going to see good profit growth over the next several quarters, but it's not going to be as strong as it's been of late. Still, it will be better than a poke in the eye.
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It's growing rapidly, and it does suggest that we're going to see at least a temporary pickup in economic activity.
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If he starts to see softness in the economy, and if in fact inflation is moderating, he will want to cut rates a little bit in order to have a soft landing.
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The dollar would have fallen faster or further had there not been this massive central bank intervention. If in fact they are going to cut back on their dollar-support activities, then the dollar is going to resume its decline, and that's going to have some inflationary implications.
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And rates are not likely to be adjusting downward. Households are paying about 13.75 percent of their aggregate tax income to service debt -- and it is going to go higher.