Nigel Gault
Nigel Gault
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It's interesting because the economy is growing in real terms, so you would expect to see the markets frequently posting all-time highs, because the trend is (naturally) up.
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The bottom line is that the job market carried good momentum and the economy can weather the temporary hit from the hurricanes.
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These figures suggest that growth is stable but not extremely strong. These figures should add to the conviction in financial markets that the Fed will soon be able to stop raising rates.
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The initial reaction of the market is to say that this makes it less likely that the Federal Reserve will be able to stop rising rates just yet.
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It wouldn't be unusual at all for them to stop and start again.
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Energy prices were rising before Katrina hit, and while those costs didn't make their way through to finished goods in August, we have to expect higher core inflation in coming months. Firms are saying that they've absorbed so much already that they have to pass on these costs.
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Excluding autos, spending growth looks healthy -- not a blockbuster holiday season, but far better than it appeared a couple of months ago when gasoline prices were over $3 per gallon.
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U.S. consumers have been increasing their spending much faster than their incomes.
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The trend still points to a larger deficit in coming months, especially given the recent rises in oil prices.
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We believe the numbers today are confirming our view that growth will be soft throughout the rest of the year.
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We are now at the point where Hurricane Katrina's effects are adding to job creation rather than detracting from it.
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I don't think it's the case that we suddenly turn off the tap, and consumer spending stops dead in its tracks. It's more gradual.
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Within a few months, the deficit will be widening to new records.
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With consumers likely to return to the malls from the auto showrooms, spending in other areas will pick up again, especially once cooler weather arrives to give a boost to fall clothing,