Nigel Gault
Nigel Gault
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It seems that companies are continuing to find new ways to apply advanced technology to increase output per worker. It has been really incredible how much extra output companies have been able to pump out without dramatically increasing staffing.
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For a long time we've been looking for consumer spending to slow down, ... It's a question whether this is a trigger for a broader slowdown in consumer spending and the housing market.
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This is the unusual episode that we've had so many rate hikes in a row.
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This latest report is unmistakable evidence of an improving economy. What you have to look for is evidence that the fourth-quarter slowdown in economic growth will continue. And this jobs report is evidence that just the opposite is happening.
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Clearly the slowdown in housing will mean slower growth in the overall economy. The big question mark is how much damage there will be.
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The goods and services deficit will continue to widen, especially since after Katrina the United States will be importing more energy products at higher prices.
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With consumers likely to return to the malls from the auto showrooms, spending in other areas will pick up again, especially once cooler weather arrives to give a boost to fall clothing,
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There is a risk that we will push up above 2 percent, not necessarily over the next month but sometime over the next few months. That will be a concern to the Fed.
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It is possible that the hurricanes that hit in August and September had a bigger impact on measured GDP growth in the fourth quarter than in the third. ... The hurricanes probably dragged on investment, too.
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I don't think it's the case that we suddenly turn off the tap, and consumer spending stops dead in its tracks. It's more gradual.
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Growth was very good in the third quarter. We really suspect that the last two reports greatly understated the underlying strength of the labor market.
believe growth numbers rest soft throughout today view
We believe the numbers today are confirming our view that growth will be soft throughout the rest of the year.
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We are now at the point where Hurricane Katrina's effects are adding to job creation rather than detracting from it.
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For the construction workers, there will be probably not be so much work in new residential building, but there will be work in nonresidential building and there will also be work in reconstruction projects in the hurricane-affected areas. It's a mixed bag for construction.