Nigel Gault
Nigel Gault
economy economy-and-economics expect frequently growing markets posting trend
It's interesting because the economy is growing in real terms, so you would expect to see the markets frequently posting all-time highs, because the trend is (naturally) up.
add conviction extremely fed figures financial growth markets raising soon stable stop suggest
These figures suggest that growth is stable but not extremely strong. These figures should add to the conviction in financial markets that the Fed will soon be able to stop raising rates.
areas auto boost consumers cooler fall likely malls pick return spending weather
With consumers likely to return to the malls from the auto showrooms, spending in other areas will pick up again, especially once cooler weather arrives to give a boost to fall clothing,
deficit few widening within
Within a few months, the deficit will be widening to new records.
consumers faster increasing spending
U.S. consumers have been increasing their spending much faster than their incomes.
continue deficit energy goods higher katrina products services since states united united-states
The goods and services deficit will continue to widen, especially since after Katrina the United States will be importing more energy products at higher prices.
asking associated energy gets magnitude mentioned movements needs question reason sort start
The reason (recession) gets mentioned . . . is that (energy price) movements of this sort of magnitude usually would be associated with recession. So you do have to start asking the question, ... The question needs to be asked, even if we think things are different on this occasion.
chances consumers continue federal increase raise rates reserve sign until
There is no sign at all now that US consumers have started to tighten their belts. This will increase the chances that the Federal Reserve will continue to raise rates up until May.
above concern few month next push risk sometime
There is a risk that we will push up above 2 percent, not necessarily over the next month but sometime over the next few months. That will be a concern to the Fed.
august bigger dragged fourth growth hit impact measured possible quarter september
It is possible that the hurricanes that hit in August and September had a bigger impact on measured GDP growth in the fourth quarter than in the third. ... The hurricanes probably dragged on investment, too.
case consumer dead spending stops suddenly turn
I don't think it's the case that we suddenly turn off the tap, and consumer spending stops dead in its tracks. It's more gradual.
good greatly growth labor last reports strength suspect third underlying
Growth was very good in the third quarter. We really suspect that the last two reports greatly understated the underlying strength of the labor market.
believe growth numbers rest soft throughout today view
We believe the numbers today are confirming our view that growth will be soft throughout the rest of the year.
adding creation effects hurricane job point rather
We are now at the point where Hurricane Katrina's effects are adding to job creation rather than detracting from it.