Nigel Gault
Nigel Gault
add conviction extremely fed figures financial growth markets raising soon stable stop suggest
These figures suggest that growth is stable but not extremely strong. These figures should add to the conviction in financial markets that the Fed will soon be able to stop raising rates.
economy economy-and-economics expect frequently growing markets posting trend
It's interesting because the economy is growing in real terms, so you would expect to see the markets frequently posting all-time highs, because the trend is (naturally) up.
asking associated energy gets magnitude mentioned movements needs question reason sort start
The reason (recession) gets mentioned . . . is that (energy price) movements of this sort of magnitude usually would be associated with recession. So you do have to start asking the question, ... The question needs to be asked, even if we think things are different on this occasion.
chances consumers continue federal increase raise rates reserve sign until
There is no sign at all now that US consumers have started to tighten their belts. This will increase the chances that the Federal Reserve will continue to raise rates up until May.
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Energy prices were rising before Katrina hit, and while those costs didn't make their way through to finished goods in August, we have to expect higher core inflation in coming months. Firms are saying that they've absorbed so much already that they have to pass on these costs.
appeared couple far gasoline growth healthy holiday looks months per prices spending
Excluding autos, spending growth looks healthy -- not a blockbuster holiday season, but far better than it appeared a couple of months ago when gasoline prices were over $3 per gallon.
deficit few widening within
Within a few months, the deficit will be widening to new records.
consumers faster increasing spending
U.S. consumers have been increasing their spending much faster than their incomes.
coming deficit given larger oil points recent rises trend
The trend still points to a larger deficit in coming months, especially given the recent rises in oil prices.
scholars-and-scholarship start stop unusual
It wouldn't be unusual at all for them to stop and start again.
believe carry consumers harder longer price prices stay whether
Of course, we don't know whether the price is going to stay at $3. But the longer prices stay at this level, the harder it is to believe that consumers will just carry on doing what they were doing.
bottom carried economy economy-and-economics good hit job line market momentum temporary weather
The bottom line is that the job market carried good momentum and the economy can weather the temporary hit from the hurricanes.
funds given source
That's given them a source of funds to keep spending.
activity continued demand early high levels looks outlook remain
Activity levels remain solid, indicating continued high demand for services. The outlook for early 2006 looks positive.