Ned Riley
Ned Riley
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I think the story is going to be the same going forward. We're going to see the tech companies reporting well. But the high interest rates we've seen so far have undermined some of the financial stocks and drug stocks.
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It's equally distributed in Nasdaq. I haven't seen any particular catalysts. The front-line companies like Cisco, Intel, Microsoft, Oracle are still suffering from tax selling.
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This is one of the most challenging periods for markets I've seen in a while. Short-term fundamentals are improving, but socio-political overtones are pulling people away from the positives. Even with closing a little higher, today's (Wednesday) activity was just an extension of what we've seen the whole week.
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This is one of the most challenging periods for markets I've seen in a while, ... Short-term fundamentals are improving, but socio-political overtones are pulling people away from the positives. Even with closing a little higher, today's (Wednesday) activity was just an extension of what we've seen the whole week.
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This divergence that's developed over the last 12 months, has clearly been the widest I've ever seen in all the years I've been in the business.
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This administration is seen as being very pro-investment, whereas Kerry is seen as wanting to rewrite the rules -- on capital gains, tax cuts on the wealthy, certain business regulations. I think, for market psychology, that would be damaging.
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The economic strength that we've seen in the last six weeks has been what I call deflationary.
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What's going to be key over the next week and determine how stocks perform is the interplay of pre-announcements versus brokerage upgrades. The corporate news will become more relevant than the economic news as we get closer to the period of quarterly reporting.
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The rocky road to recovery has some potholes.
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These companies are boxed in by poor past forecasts and lack of visibility.
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These companies are actually growing, ... The whole group is growing somewhere between 10 and 13 percent relative earnings growth and the price-earnings ratios are about 13 to 14 times. It's one of the few groups out there that are actually selling at their growth rate in terms of price-earnings ratio. And, right now, it's strange -- people don't like the group. It isn't a hot group.
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The smartest thing a company can do is take anything that they think might be questionable and disclose it now,
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Things like Dell Computer or Microsoft or Cisco Systems, all have one characteristic: They have enough cash to go through a period like this and come out smelling like roses,
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The worst point of the tech cycle is probably upon us now, but the actual results and the commentary on earnings are no surprise. There's a selling exhaustion in regards to tech stocks. People are trying to focus on the road ahead. Looking forward; there is a lot of upside potential.