Ned Riley
Ned Riley
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I think the Fed has at least one further tightening in June and another one in August. Until the American consumer changes his or her outlook on further income growth, the economy is going to remain vibrant and inflation will continue to rise.
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It is another piece of good news in that it leaves the Fed in an unfettered position to exercise more discretion in monetary easing. Because the economy has displayed such weakness and inflation has been non-existent with the exception of energy-related prices, the short-term inflation number may be less relevant.
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Overall, a great inflation report. This again confirms interest rates should be declining over the next six months and should send the message to the Fed that it need not worry about long-term inflation.
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Clearly, the focus going forward is going to stay on the macro news to either enforce or dispel the notion that inflation is rising.
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Clearly it is not much of a surprise. There was a very strong feeling he would try to establish himself as an inflation hawk.
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What's going to be key over the next week and determine how stocks perform is the interplay of pre-announcements versus brokerage upgrades. The corporate news will become more relevant than the economic news as we get closer to the period of quarterly reporting.
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The rocky road to recovery has some potholes.
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These companies are boxed in by poor past forecasts and lack of visibility.
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These companies are actually growing, ... The whole group is growing somewhere between 10 and 13 percent relative earnings growth and the price-earnings ratios are about 13 to 14 times. It's one of the few groups out there that are actually selling at their growth rate in terms of price-earnings ratio. And, right now, it's strange -- people don't like the group. It isn't a hot group.
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The smartest thing a company can do is take anything that they think might be questionable and disclose it now,
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Things like Dell Computer or Microsoft or Cisco Systems, all have one characteristic: They have enough cash to go through a period like this and come out smelling like roses,
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The worst point of the tech cycle is probably upon us now, but the actual results and the commentary on earnings are no surprise. There's a selling exhaustion in regards to tech stocks. People are trying to focus on the road ahead. Looking forward; there is a lot of upside potential.
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Enron is providing the counterforce right now. It's undermining a number of industries such as utilities, banks, insurance and energy companies.
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Fears about the next scandal seem to have eased. It's not very exciting, but it's a period where a lack of news is almost good.