Ned Riley
Ned Riley
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The worst point of the tech cycle is probably upon us now, but the actual results and the commentary on earnings are no surprise. There's a selling exhaustion in regards to tech stocks. People are trying to focus on the road ahead. Looking forward; there is a lot of upside potential.
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It should be evident by now that the rest of the earnings are going to come in at the same sort of magnitude over estimates. The focus is going to shift.
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It really does reflect the focus of American businesses on profitability because this is now substantially into this economic recovery and companies are still producing results that are substantially above long-term averages.
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For the rest of the month, the focus for the stock market will be on interest rates.
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Clearly, the focus going forward is going to stay on the macro news to either enforce or dispel the notion that inflation is rising.
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I do think we're searching for a bottom on the Nasdaq and the action looks good so far. I see a lot of stocks doing well and people are going bottom fishing. Interest rates matter and clearly the Federal Reserve needs to focus on the Nasdaq.
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The focus point of the market this week is going to be tomorrow. If anything, I'm hoping for neutrality out of the Fed.
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What's going to be key over the next week and determine how stocks perform is the interplay of pre-announcements versus brokerage upgrades. The corporate news will become more relevant than the economic news as we get closer to the period of quarterly reporting.
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The rocky road to recovery has some potholes.
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These companies are boxed in by poor past forecasts and lack of visibility.
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These companies are actually growing, ... The whole group is growing somewhere between 10 and 13 percent relative earnings growth and the price-earnings ratios are about 13 to 14 times. It's one of the few groups out there that are actually selling at their growth rate in terms of price-earnings ratio. And, right now, it's strange -- people don't like the group. It isn't a hot group.
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The smartest thing a company can do is take anything that they think might be questionable and disclose it now,
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Things like Dell Computer or Microsoft or Cisco Systems, all have one characteristic: They have enough cash to go through a period like this and come out smelling like roses,
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Enron is providing the counterforce right now. It's undermining a number of industries such as utilities, banks, insurance and energy companies.