Mike Wittner
Mike Wittner
capacity chance crude demand happened issue lost political production reason risk spare worry
The reason we worry about political risk is that it has a chance to become a real fundamental factor, like it happened in Nigeria, where you lost some real supply. The spare capacity issue for refining and crude production still underlies everything because demand is still healthy.
cold demand reason strong sustained
Strong demand is now priced in. Barring a sustained cold snap, I can't see any fundamental reason for much more of an up-move.
bottom convinced demand line market needs seems
The bottom line is US demand seems to be recovering, but the market still needs to be convinced of that.
assuming calendar demand drivers growth itself market moderately neutral normal stocks three
The market has three drivers right now: distillate stocks (including heating oil), demand growth and the weather, ... Stocks are moderately bearish, demand is neutral and the calendar itself is moderately bullish, assuming a normal winter.
couple figure happens last market pause weeks
We had such a big run-up in the last couple of weeks that the market is going to want to consolidate and pause to figure out what happens next.
driver general iran key massive money oil prices since start
The speculative money is as much of a key driver for oil prices as Iran and Nigeria. There has been a massive influx of new money into commodities in general since the start of the year.
chances correction downside market oil passing upside warm week
With each passing week of warm weather, the upside diminishes, the downside increases, and the chances of an oil market correction before the springtime also increase.
capacity further goes hit south
There is a lot of refinery capacity around Houston. If (Hurricane Rita) goes further south then it could hit refineries around Corpus Christi.
cold price trading
We're trading on the weather. It's cold in New York, so the price is going up.
declining markets oil production several uk
But markets are not really surprised. UK oil production has been declining for several years.
financial flows hit iran
It's U.S. gasoline, its Nigeria, it's the financial flows and Iran is there in the background. Do I think we're going to hit $70 at some point? Easily.
bit profit taking
It's just a bit of profit taking after the weekend.
driving factors market nice reminder step
When you step back and put it all together, it's nice timing. It's a New Year's reminder of the geo-political factors that are driving the market higher.
begin markets pricing
I think the markets will begin pricing in the downstream investments during 2007.