Mike Wittner
Mike Wittner
couple figure happens last market pause weeks
We had such a big run-up in the last couple of weeks that the market is going to want to consolidate and pause to figure out what happens next.
chances correction downside market oil passing upside warm week
With each passing week of warm weather, the upside diminishes, the downside increases, and the chances of an oil market correction before the springtime also increase.
declining markets oil production several uk
But markets are not really surprised. UK oil production has been declining for several years.
driving factors market nice reminder step
When you step back and put it all together, it's nice timing. It's a New Year's reminder of the geo-political factors that are driving the market higher.
begin markets pricing
I think the markets will begin pricing in the downstream investments during 2007.
bottom convinced demand line market needs seems
The bottom line is US demand seems to be recovering, but the market still needs to be convinced of that.
continue crude markets near prices product strengthen
In the near term, the markets will continue to strengthen and weaken with the weather, and crude and product prices will be range-bound.
fairly markets news oil physical reacting relaxed seen surprised
The markets have been reacting to news on Iran, but the physical oil markets have been fairly relaxed so I'm not surprised to have seen them fall.
assuming calendar demand drivers growth itself market moderately neutral normal stocks three
The market has three drivers right now: distillate stocks (including heating oil), demand growth and the weather, ... Stocks are moderately bearish, demand is neutral and the calendar itself is moderately bullish, assuming a normal winter.
draws gasoline larger last market races
The market has consolidated for the last day and a half. If the gasoline draws are larger than expected, we'll be off to the races again.
anyone attention close crude market markets needs oil paying recent sour
The market doesn't need more sour crude now, it needs more oil products. For anyone who has been paying close attention to oil markets in recent months, the whole thing is a big shrug of the shoulders.
driver general iran key massive money oil prices since start
The speculative money is as much of a key driver for oil prices as Iran and Nigeria. There has been a massive influx of new money into commodities in general since the start of the year.
capacity further goes hit south
There is a lot of refinery capacity around Houston. If (Hurricane Rita) goes further south then it could hit refineries around Corpus Christi.
capacity chance crude demand happened issue lost political production reason risk spare worry
The reason we worry about political risk is that it has a chance to become a real fundamental factor, like it happened in Nigeria, where you lost some real supply. The spare capacity issue for refining and crude production still underlies everything because demand is still healthy.