Michael Englund
Michael Englund
ahead coming confidence effect higher june line numbers oil prices seeing shot
What we are seeing is that these numbers are coming in line with other confidence figures, which shot ahead in May and June with oil prices falling, and now with oil prices soaring, we are seeing the effect from higher prices at the pump.
land until
We would not be able to land (in Stockholm) until 1:30 a.m. and that is not reasonable.
continue five remarkable six spending
There has been a remarkable surge in spending and it will probably continue for another five or six months.
economy inherent january jobs lead remains report risk signs suggest though view volatility
Though inherent volatility in the monthly jobs report may lead to a January dud, all signs suggest that the risk is for a whopper that would solidify the view that the economy remains solid.
alter combined data february january likely months robust unlikely
We will likely see payback in February for the outsized January surge. It is unlikely that the combined data for the two months alter the robust trajectory.
capacity delicate grenade hand hurricane shortage throws
Going into the hurricane we had a shortage of refining capacity anyway. This just throws a hand grenade into the already delicate balance.
boost seeing
We may be seeing the unwinding of the boost from post-Katrina spending.
september surprised weakness
I wouldn't be surprised to see more weakness in the September report.
businesses equipment expecting investment optimistic plans seem software solid year
We're expecting a solid year for equipment and software spending. Businesses seem to have very optimistic plans for investment in 2006.
belief instead points report simply
Today's report simply reinforces the belief that it will be 25 points instead of 50 points.
bets bit concerned continue inflation might notion strong supports
Overall, they were a bit concerned about inflation and see strong growth, which supports the notion that they will continue to tighten policy. But after Katrina, all bets on how much they might tighten are off the table,
damage december economy effect hurricane november positive production seeing start
Overall, the damage from the hurricane on the economy is limited, and by November and December we will start seeing the positive effect on production from rebuilding.
economic estimate fluid growth information lowering situation
The story is all about oil. This is still a fluid situation but we have enough information to feel comfortable lowering our economic growth estimate even further.
almost chance effect inflation march numbers policy revision slow week wholesale
It's a slow week for releases, ... I think there's almost no chance the productivity revision or the wholesale inflation numbers will have much effect on the Fed's March policy decision.