Michael Englund
Michael Englund
actual amount compared errors goods numbers phone reflect reporting sales service small
Not only are these numbers small compared to the economy, they don't reflect actual errors in reporting the sales of actual goods and services, ... WorldCom, for example, wasn't overstating the amount of phone service it provided.
benefits consumers economy effect energy inflation interest low net producers rates result sector
The net effect on the economy is always positive. We have more consumers of energy than producers and the result is that the sector that benefits from low inflation and low interest rates comes out ahead.
economic firm growth labor market remains solid
The labor market remains solid and economic growth will remain firm into the new year.
confidence few hit impact increase sentiment weeks
It's the impact from Katrina, which in the first few weeks will be at a maximum, and it does increase our confidence that we will see a hit to the other sentiment indexes in September.
august headline looks outside rest retail sales shown strength weakness
Even with the weakness in the headline number, the rest of the story looks good. June, July, August have all shown strength in retail sales outside of autos.
almost chance effect inflation march numbers policy revision slow week wholesale
It's a slow week for releases, ... I think there's almost no chance the productivity revision or the wholesale inflation numbers will have much effect on the Fed's March policy decision.
affect ambiguous caution concerned consumers economy increasing key report whether
Consumers are always concerned about the economy but the key is whether they are predisposed to increasing caution when it comes to spending. I think today's report demonstrates that the hurricanes had an ambiguous affect on spending.
data economy
This data will tell us little about the economy going forward,
auto catch june producers sales starting strong took tried
Producers tried to catch up with strong sales starting in June and July, but they can't keep up. Auto inventories took a big hit.
claims early entered growth improved labor level likely market payroll period remains remarkably
The level of claims remains remarkably lean. The labor market has improved significantly in early 2006. Payroll growth has likely entered a period of overdrive.
continue economy likely oil prove resilient rising
The economy will likely continue to prove surprisingly resilient to rising oil prices.