Michael Englund
Michael Englund
economy inherent january jobs lead remains report risk signs suggest though view volatility
Though inherent volatility in the monthly jobs report may lead to a January dud, all signs suggest that the risk is for a whopper that would solidify the view that the economy remains solid.
affect ambiguous caution concerned consumers economy increasing key report whether
Consumers are always concerned about the economy but the key is whether they are predisposed to increasing caution when it comes to spending. I think today's report demonstrates that the hurricanes had an ambiguous affect on spending.
data economy
This data will tell us little about the economy going forward,
damage december economy effect hurricane november positive production seeing start
Overall, the damage from the hurricane on the economy is limited, and by November and December we will start seeing the positive effect on production from rebuilding.
benefits consumers economy effect energy inflation interest low net producers rates result sector
The net effect on the economy is always positive. We have more consumers of energy than producers and the result is that the sector that benefits from low inflation and low interest rates comes out ahead.
continue economy likely oil prove resilient rising
The economy will likely continue to prove surprisingly resilient to rising oil prices.
economy economy-and-economics energy falling gas growth oil price prices proving rate resilient savings spending though
In general, the economy is proving to be resilient to energy and gas price pressure. It's on a growth path. Even though oil prices are higher, the fundamentals of the economy are strong. Therefore, we see consumers' savings rate falling and spending up.
economic estimate fluid growth information lowering situation
The story is all about oil. This is still a fluid situation but we have enough information to feel comfortable lowering our economic growth estimate even further.
auto catch june producers sales starting strong took tried
Producers tried to catch up with strong sales starting in June and July, but they can't keep up. Auto inventories took a big hit.
belief instead points report simply
Today's report simply reinforces the belief that it will be 25 points instead of 50 points.
ahead coming confidence effect higher june line numbers oil prices seeing shot
What we are seeing is that these numbers are coming in line with other confidence figures, which shot ahead in May and June with oil prices falling, and now with oil prices soaring, we are seeing the effect from higher prices at the pump.
alter combined data february january likely months robust unlikely
We will likely see payback in February for the outsized January surge. It is unlikely that the combined data for the two months alter the robust trajectory.
land until
We would not be able to land (in Stockholm) until 1:30 a.m. and that is not reasonable.
continue five remarkable six spending
There has been a remarkable surge in spending and it will probably continue for another five or six months.