Michael Englund
Michael Englund
businesses equipment expecting investment optimistic plans seem software solid year
We're expecting a solid year for equipment and software spending. Businesses seem to have very optimistic plans for investment in 2006.
bets bit concerned continue inflation might notion strong supports
Overall, they were a bit concerned about inflation and see strong growth, which supports the notion that they will continue to tighten policy. But after Katrina, all bets on how much they might tighten are off the table,
damage december economy effect hurricane november positive production seeing start
Overall, the damage from the hurricane on the economy is limited, and by November and December we will start seeing the positive effect on production from rebuilding.
belief instead points report simply
Today's report simply reinforces the belief that it will be 25 points instead of 50 points.
actual amount compared errors goods numbers phone reflect reporting sales service small
Not only are these numbers small compared to the economy, they don't reflect actual errors in reporting the sales of actual goods and services, ... WorldCom, for example, wasn't overstating the amount of phone service it provided.
benefits consumers economy effect energy inflation interest low net producers rates result sector
The net effect on the economy is always positive. We have more consumers of energy than producers and the result is that the sector that benefits from low inflation and low interest rates comes out ahead.
economic firm growth labor market remains solid
The labor market remains solid and economic growth will remain firm into the new year.
affect ambiguous caution concerned consumers economy increasing key report whether
Consumers are always concerned about the economy but the key is whether they are predisposed to increasing caution when it comes to spending. I think today's report demonstrates that the hurricanes had an ambiguous affect on spending.
august headline looks outside rest retail sales shown strength weakness
Even with the weakness in the headline number, the rest of the story looks good. June, July, August have all shown strength in retail sales outside of autos.
economy inherent january jobs lead remains report risk signs suggest though view volatility
Though inherent volatility in the monthly jobs report may lead to a January dud, all signs suggest that the risk is for a whopper that would solidify the view that the economy remains solid.
ahead coming confidence effect higher june line numbers oil prices seeing shot
What we are seeing is that these numbers are coming in line with other confidence figures, which shot ahead in May and June with oil prices falling, and now with oil prices soaring, we are seeing the effect from higher prices at the pump.
almost chance effect inflation march numbers policy revision slow week wholesale
It's a slow week for releases, ... I think there's almost no chance the productivity revision or the wholesale inflation numbers will have much effect on the Fed's March policy decision.
data economy
This data will tell us little about the economy going forward,
confidence few hit impact increase sentiment weeks
It's the impact from Katrina, which in the first few weeks will be at a maximum, and it does increase our confidence that we will see a hit to the other sentiment indexes in September.