Michael Carty
Michael Carty
Michael Cartywas an Irish Fianna Fáil politician. Born in Loughrea, County Galway to Lawrence and Josephine Carty, he was the eldest of seven children. A schoolteacher by profession, he was first elected to Dáil Éireann as a Fianna Fáil TD for the Galway South constituency at the 1957 general election. From 1961 to 1969, he represented the Galway East constituency, and from 1969 to 1973 the Clare–Galway South constituency. He retired from politics in 1973...
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The new orders index was better, profits are going to be up a little, interest rates are at a record low, there have been so many layoffs that that may start to dry up, there will be rising productivity and higher profit margins -- all these things combined could give some support,
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Because inflation is modest, and worries about that are starting to diminish, I think the focus will turn to earnings, and the earnings are going to be very strong.
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There's just no obligation to jump in until we start seeing better (profit) reports and that won't be until July.
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Sentiment, generally, is the big problem now. Even as market fundamentals are starting to improve, people are reluctant to buy,
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This stalling is likely to continue as we get through this period. But in early to mid April, you could start to see stocks move higher as the earnings reports start coming in and they prove to be positive, as the economic news continues to be strong and as the issues that are going to determine the election become more clear.
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In most election years, stocks are up. But when you think about the kinds of policies that are going to be implemented, the market gets a little worried. So, I would say up until the election you will see some very interesting dynamics. If they feel that a demonstration is favorable, drug stocks will get in then and all of a sudden the drug stocks will start looking hot. If the economy seems to be moving along nicely the high-tech new economy-type stocks will continue to do well,
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We're in this confessional period where there's nothing but bad news coming into the market place now and investors have become really cynical.
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We're seeing some jitters about the Middle East as it relates to our presidential election. But I think the trend should remain up. Earnings are certainly strong, and I think the market should follow that. The only thing we have to fear is more talk about interest rates.
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We're seeing a little turnaround, after so much negative news. It's also the end of the quarter, so portfolio managers need to do a little window dressing.
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We like auto parts and accessories; we even like Pep Boys. They have a return on equity similar to AutoZone, which has a return on equity somewhere in the neighborhood of 40 percent,
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There are some rumors that although the market is open, a lot of people have decided to take long holidays, and so I think you'll see a drop in volume next week.
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There are some negatives out there, but manufacturing and factory orders seem to be coming back and there will be a lot of rebuilding down in the Southeast. I think we've basically been too negative.
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Yesterday (Monday) was a technical rally. There's still a lot of uncertainty about a potential recession and about what's going to happen on the diplomatic front.
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There are a lot of good things happening right now, but the market continues to focus on Iraq, interest rates, the presidential election, and particularly right now, the high-profile earnings misses.