Michael Carty
Michael Carty
Michael Cartywas an Irish Fianna Fáil politician. Born in Loughrea, County Galway to Lawrence and Josephine Carty, he was the eldest of seven children. A schoolteacher by profession, he was first elected to Dáil Éireann as a Fianna Fáil TD for the Galway South constituency at the 1957 general election. From 1961 to 1969, he represented the Galway East constituency, and from 1969 to 1973 the Clare–Galway South constituency. He retired from politics in 1973...
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Most analysts are calling for the market to rise between 5 percent and 10 percent next year, but I think it could be more like 15 percent. The economy is heating up, the employment picture has been improving and companies will begin spending more.
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First off, Microsoft does have a good product mix, ... It has a five-year earnings growth rate, which is somewhere around 15 percent because it is a giant after all.
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They make all sorts of devices for reconstructing your skeletal framework and they have a number of different businesses. This is a company that's expected to grow somewhere in the neighborhood of 15 percent a year and they're going to be up about 20 percent in earnings this year, ... Its got a price-to-earnings multiple a little bit better than market but it's got a better earnings growth rate, which justifies it.
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They run about 111 hospitals. It has about a 20 percent rise in earnings this year. Five- year projections are 20 percent annually. It's got operating margin around 20 percent.
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I kind of like consumer non-durables, (they are) all expected to earn 20 to 25 percent or better this fiscal year, ... They have good returns on equity, 15 percent plus. And I think they're priced appropriately within their price-to-earnings multiples.
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The markets seem to be rising as a consequence of the fact that the Federal Reserve had decreased the interest rate by half a percentage point and the fact that people began to believe the Fed was going to do whatever it can do to continue to see the economy turn around.
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We're in this confessional period where there's nothing but bad news coming into the market place now and investors have become really cynical.
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We're seeing some jitters about the Middle East as it relates to our presidential election. But I think the trend should remain up. Earnings are certainly strong, and I think the market should follow that. The only thing we have to fear is more talk about interest rates.
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We're seeing a little turnaround, after so much negative news. It's also the end of the quarter, so portfolio managers need to do a little window dressing.
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We like auto parts and accessories; we even like Pep Boys. They have a return on equity similar to AutoZone, which has a return on equity somewhere in the neighborhood of 40 percent,
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There are some rumors that although the market is open, a lot of people have decided to take long holidays, and so I think you'll see a drop in volume next week.
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There are some negatives out there, but manufacturing and factory orders seem to be coming back and there will be a lot of rebuilding down in the Southeast. I think we've basically been too negative.
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Yesterday (Monday) was a technical rally. There's still a lot of uncertainty about a potential recession and about what's going to happen on the diplomatic front.
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There are a lot of good things happening right now, but the market continues to focus on Iraq, interest rates, the presidential election, and particularly right now, the high-profile earnings misses.