Mark DiCamillo
Mark DiCamillo
ads defeat helping negative seems voters
The barrage of negative ads seems to be influencing voters and helping to defeat Proposition 79,
candidates himself illegal issue issues late lower numbers onto points quality raise win
In late 1993, (Wilson) was at 31 percent, which is even lower than the governor's numbers today, ... He went on to win by 10 points in 1994. There was a lot of grumbling about Pete Wilson, but he was able to distinguish himself from (Democratic candidate) Kathleen Brown, latched onto illegal immigration as an issue and it propelled him to victory. The quality of the campaign, the way candidates raise the salience of issues - all those things matter.
actual change direction numbers revealing
slipping ... and it's the direction of the change that is more revealing than the actual numbers themselves.
inclined stage vote
at this stage are still inclined to vote for it.
among california eighty mayor name offer opinion percent remains scene terms though top
(Brown) still remains among the top tier of personalities in California in terms of name recognition. Eighty percent could offer an opinion one way or the other, even though he has been Oakland mayor and off the statewide scene for many years.
both cut groups hold issue though various
Even though various groups hold very different attitudes, it's important to all sides. It's an issue that can cut both ways.
cynicism cynics-and-cynicism dragged effects election governor greater questioned reasons sell side special voter
As the special election has dragged on, one of the side effects have been greater voter cynicism about the reasons the governor called the election, ... The governor has never been able to sell them on the idea and have questioned his motives.
class groups issue middle people tend view voters
Different groups of people view this issue very differently. Voters tend to be older, whiter and middle class, while unregistered voters tend to be young and immigrant.
changes confusion history knowledge lead shows voter
There's not a lot of knowledge about the two initiatives. History shows that voter confusion ... can lead to changes in their preferences.
awareness early generally known
There's not a lot of awareness of most of the down-ballot candidates. Generally speaking, the one who are better known are in the early lead.
amount behind far monumental needs seen start work
I've never seen a proposition start out this far behind and pass. It's monumental the amount of work (the governor) needs to do on this one.
behind divisions issue time voters whose
This issue wipes out all the divisions in the state. It's an issue whose time has come. Voters are behind it.
bush case richard somewhat uncharted voted
They were just about to be voted out of office, or in the case of Richard Nixon, he was about to resign. Bush still has more than two years to go, so I think we're in somewhat uncharted territory.
anticipate election people strongly turns
People feel very strongly about this initiative. I don't anticipate a lot of movement. It may come down to who turns out on Election Day.