Marc Pado
Marc Pado
added additional basis faded fed gave investors juice june market needed overhead points potential rally serious time yesterday
Every time investors think the Fed is going to be one-and-done, they rally the market 100 points. Yesterday was no exception. The potential for an additional 25 basis points in June faded from over 50% to about 28%. That gave the market the added juice it needed to penetrate serious overhead supply.
continue data excuse fed figures investors past provide raising rates relieved revised slightly though
Even though the figures were revised slightly lower, investors were relieved because the data won't provide the Fed with an excuse to continue raising rates past January.
anticipate clear fed funds soon stop trying
The 10-year has been trying to anticipate the fed funds rate. As soon as (Fed policy-makers) made it clear that they weren't going to stop at 4.75 percent, there was a big jump.
broken clear current earnings expect expected fed focus levels rate shift support supports
Those very short-term support levels were broken yesterday, but the supports under the current levels are substantial. Now that the Fed has made it clear that we will see one if not two more rate hikes, the uncertainty has been removed. We expect the focus to shift to first-quarter earnings results, and they are expected to be good.
continue expected fed market needs question recent retail sales shows slowing whether
Yields, especially on the long end, have been dogging the market in recent weeks. And retail sales down more than expected shows enough of a slowing to question whether or not the Fed needs to continue to act.
behind bullish data earnings economic federal higher hour interest iran market opinion plenty positive rally rates releases rising strong sway threat
It will take some strong earnings and bullish forecasts, as well as positive economic data, to keep the rally going. There are plenty of economic data and earnings releases to sway market opinion from hour to hour and day to day. Behind it all, there is the rising threat of geopolitical tensions with Iran and higher interest rates out of the Federal Reserve.
both components decent drop energy eyes far fed impressive investors january market needed pressures sales statements suddenly truly understanding wage
Had it not been for the impressive January same-store sales reports, decent forward-looking statements and the big drop in energy prices, the market drop would have been far worse. With the understanding that we needed to keep our eyes on wage pressures and productivity, both of those components suddenly soured investors on the idea that the Fed was truly done.
averages bulls carry claus clearly expect highs next rally santa year
The Santa Claus rally is clearly underway. I expect to see the bulls carry the averages to new 4 1/2 year highs right into next Friday's close.
although earnings focal main starting
Earnings will be the main focal point, although the rumbling is already starting about the upcoming FOMC meeting.
last perhaps yesterday
Yesterday was perhaps as technically disappointing as last Friday.
growth positive rather
Most everyone has rather positive expectations for double-digit (corporate earnings) growth for the first quarter. That is already 'baked in the cake'.
ground help hold looking mergers
Mergers are looking to help us hold our ground today.
bulls continued crude help market obstacles positive rally reinforce represent retail sales strength support weakness
While we would like to see a follow-through day, the positive implications from yesterday's rally should help reinforce a support under the market at Tuesday's intraday lows. Weakness in same-store retail sales and continued strength in crude will represent the first obstacles for the bulls today.
coming date flows money tax
With the tax date deadline, you're getting money flows coming into the market.