Lorenzo Codogno
Lorenzo Codogno
change governing perceived shift
At the margin, the change may be perceived as a small, dovish shift for the ECB governing council.
believe coming data disposable euro evidence expected gradually hard household improvement likely line modestly private proceed recovery shift soft zone
We believe that the long-awaited shift from soft to hard data is evidence of a recovery in euro zone private consumption has started, and will likely proceed gradually and modestly over the coming months, in line with the expected improvement in household real disposable income.
bold clearly might policy risk until wait
There is clearly a risk now that they might be bold enough to tighten policy in December, We think they will wait until March.
era gone good people regret
That whole era is gone for good and not many people will regret its passing.
belts bill consumers economy energy increased risk
With the energy bill having increased recently, the risk is that consumers will tighten their belts over Christmas. The euro-zone economy is still at risk of a disappointing Christmas.
balanced both claim clearly debate sides sure time winner
It was much more balanced than the first debate which Berlusconi clearly lost. This time I think there was no clear winner and I'm sure both sides will claim victory.
consumer cut drove increase less likely rate services spending
Services and probably consumer spending drove the increase in GDP. It makes a rate cut less likely for the moment.
continue keen process rapid start
They were very keen to start the process early, ... But once they start, they may not continue at a rapid rate.
change economic interest rates seem short suggest
We don't see any change this year. Economic indicators seem to suggest there will be no change in interest rates in the short term.
both demand due largely market oil prices rate recognize remains risk supply vulnerable
We don't see another rate rise, but we recognize that the risk is still there, due largely to oil prices -- the oil market remains vulnerable for both supply and demand reasons,
european fair few germany past problems standards tried
To be fair with Schroeder, he tried and by European standards he did do more than other governments in the past few years. But the problems in Germany are more entrenched now.
february high hike looks march remains
The probability of a February hike looks very small, but that of a tightening in March remains high in our view.
hike march rate
A March rate hike is a done deal.
christmas data february gift growing inflated january likely normal purchases return subdued tendency towards turned
As January data are inflated by a growing tendency towards gift vouchers over Christmas, which are then turned into purchases afterwards, a return to normal in February is likely to show up in more subdued sales.