Lorenzo Codogno
Lorenzo Codogno
gap hard mind soft
Mind the Gap between Soft and Hard Data.
believe coming data disposable euro evidence expected gradually hard household improvement likely line modestly private proceed recovery shift soft zone
We believe that the long-awaited shift from soft to hard data is evidence of a recovery in euro zone private consumption has started, and will likely proceed gradually and modestly over the coming months, in line with the expected improvement in household real disposable income.
economy euro european harder main quicker reason rebound sharp
The main reason for the euro rebound is the sharp slowdown in the U.S. economy, ... The European economy is slowing, but the deceleration is going to be much quicker and harder in the U.S.
february high hike looks march remains
The probability of a February hike looks very small, but that of a tightening in March remains high in our view.
change global growth modest prospects shock
It would take a big global shock to change the prospects for at least modest growth in Europe.
global major remains threat
Protectionism remains the major threat to global growth.
change governing perceived shift
At the margin, the change may be perceived as a small, dovish shift for the ECB governing council.
european fair few germany past problems standards tried
To be fair with Schroeder, he tried and by European standards he did do more than other governments in the past few years. But the problems in Germany are more entrenched now.
era gone good people regret
That whole era is gone for good and not many people will regret its passing.
belts bill consumers economy energy increased risk
With the energy bill having increased recently, the risk is that consumers will tighten their belts over Christmas. The euro-zone economy is still at risk of a disappointing Christmas.
job makers order policy properly support
Policy makers are not doing their job properly in order to support the euro.
change economic interest rates seem short suggest
We don't see any change this year. Economic indicators seem to suggest there will be no change in interest rates in the short term.
both demand due largely market oil prices rate recognize remains risk supply vulnerable
We don't see another rate rise, but we recognize that the risk is still there, due largely to oil prices -- the oil market remains vulnerable for both supply and demand reasons,
coming countries domestic number pressures uneasy
There are a number of countries that are increasingly uneasy about competitive pressures coming from Asia, and the softening of domestic industry.