Lorenzo Codogno
Lorenzo Codogno
appears clear currency cut driving euro flows moment money optimal
It's not that clear cut that intervention will have an impact, ... What appears to be driving down the euro are money flows out of the euro zone. If this is the case, it is not the optimal moment for currency intervention.
balanced both claim clearly debate sides sure time winner
It was much more balanced than the first debate which Berlusconi clearly lost. This time I think there was no clear winner and I'm sure both sides will claim victory.
bold clearly might policy risk until wait
There is clearly a risk now that they might be bold enough to tighten policy in December, We think they will wait until March.
february high hike looks march remains
The probability of a February hike looks very small, but that of a tightening in March remains high in our view.
change global growth modest prospects shock
It would take a big global shock to change the prospects for at least modest growth in Europe.
global major remains threat
Protectionism remains the major threat to global growth.
change governing perceived shift
At the margin, the change may be perceived as a small, dovish shift for the ECB governing council.
european fair few germany past problems standards tried
To be fair with Schroeder, he tried and by European standards he did do more than other governments in the past few years. But the problems in Germany are more entrenched now.
era gone good people regret
That whole era is gone for good and not many people will regret its passing.
belts bill consumers economy energy increased risk
With the energy bill having increased recently, the risk is that consumers will tighten their belts over Christmas. The euro-zone economy is still at risk of a disappointing Christmas.
job makers order policy properly support
Policy makers are not doing their job properly in order to support the euro.
gap hard mind soft
Mind the Gap between Soft and Hard Data.
change economic interest rates seem short suggest
We don't see any change this year. Economic indicators seem to suggest there will be no change in interest rates in the short term.
both demand due largely market oil prices rate recognize remains risk supply vulnerable
We don't see another rate rise, but we recognize that the risk is still there, due largely to oil prices -- the oil market remains vulnerable for both supply and demand reasons,