Lorenzo Codogno
Lorenzo Codogno
february high hike looks march remains
The probability of a February hike looks very small, but that of a tightening in March remains high in our view.
change global growth modest prospects shock
It would take a big global shock to change the prospects for at least modest growth in Europe.
global major remains threat
Protectionism remains the major threat to global growth.
change governing perceived shift
At the margin, the change may be perceived as a small, dovish shift for the ECB governing council.
european fair few germany past problems standards tried
To be fair with Schroeder, he tried and by European standards he did do more than other governments in the past few years. But the problems in Germany are more entrenched now.
era gone good people regret
That whole era is gone for good and not many people will regret its passing.
belts bill consumers economy energy increased risk
With the energy bill having increased recently, the risk is that consumers will tighten their belts over Christmas. The euro-zone economy is still at risk of a disappointing Christmas.
job makers order policy properly support
Policy makers are not doing their job properly in order to support the euro.
gap hard mind soft
Mind the Gap between Soft and Hard Data.
change economic interest rates seem short suggest
We don't see any change this year. Economic indicators seem to suggest there will be no change in interest rates in the short term.
both demand due largely market oil prices rate recognize remains risk supply vulnerable
We don't see another rate rise, but we recognize that the risk is still there, due largely to oil prices -- the oil market remains vulnerable for both supply and demand reasons,
coming countries domestic number pressures uneasy
There are a number of countries that are increasingly uneasy about competitive pressures coming from Asia, and the softening of domestic industry.
delicate government position pressure reluctant turning
The government was very reluctant to take a position because it's a very delicate situation, but now they are really turning the pressure on.
available certainly change financial globally horizon japan purchase reduced
With a long-term horizon it will certainly change the situation, not only in Japan but globally ... because reduced liquidity is available for purchase of financial assets.