Larry Wachtel
Larry Wachtel
Larry Wachtelwas a stock, bonds, and equities commentator on the New York City metropolitan area radio. He added a populist flavor to his commentary on the stock market and spoke in a thick Brooklyn accent...
economy fed seeking slow
If the Fed is seeking to slow the economy down that's always the conundrum,
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If the Fed even hints that it will stop raising rates, that would be a major catalyst to move the market higher.
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I also like Tandy ( TAN : Research , Estimates ). They sell all the electronic gear that is so exciting on the dip.
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Suddenly these inflation figures have a psychological impact.
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Clearly, the gulf between technology and the rest of the market was so wide it was impossible to sustain. And there had to be a correction somewhere and the correction is under way.
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Cisco reports earnings tomorrow (Tuesday) and certainly that stock is at a price where there may be a split.
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The key this morning is the 10-year note hovering around a yield of 5%. This news trumps any economic or earnings data. It's a rate-driven market, even with oil competing for headlines. Any weakness we may see will be due to these bond yields.
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The mergers helped, but you also had some asset reallocation, with people taking money out of Treasurys and putting it into equities.
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The Microsoft delay has hurt the Nasdaq and will reverberate throughout all of technology. That will be today's big headline. We closed ragged yesterday, so we're going to have a tired market to start.
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These surveys give regional snapshots, and that's all they do. I'd never even heard of the Empire State survey until recently -- and I don't think you can build the case that Wall Street sits there panting, waiting for the results.
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In technology, I think the semiconductors, semiconductor equipment makers, and the companies that sell you electronic gear look attractive.
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I don't think the money managers are going to go rushing into stocks just simply because we got to Dow 10,000.
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However, the history of the stock market is that everyone sells into the strength. So I'll be taking it one hour at a time. I'm in a show-me mood today.
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However, given that the volume yesterday was almost at the lowest level of the year, caution prevails. I can promise a decent opening but it's still a bell to bell story.