Kurt Barnard
Kurt Barnard
reasons stores
One of the reasons why stores did not do better than they did is because there were not enough new designs, not enough new fashions.
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This trend is going to be with us for the foreseeable future. Growth will continue and will be very strong, but it will be more moderate than it was last year, ... Make no mistake about it - this growth will continue. Consumer spending will continue to grow, but it's not going to suddenly stop or go back. It will continue at a more reasonable pace.
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Americans, for one reason or another, have not given up on their infatuation with SUVs that guzzle gas by the gallons. But there's only so much money to go around. If people are paying more to drive their cars, they will have less money to spend on other things.
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They failed to establish an identity for themselves, a niche, and that makes it difficult for it to stand out, ... They never gave shoppers a reason for preferring it to any one of its rivals. It was just there, like soaking corn flakes.
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Kmart's earnings were lower than a year ago, and the reason why they were lower is because there is a lot of money being invested in infrastructure. But it's going to pay huge dividends in the future, ... Kmart is finally very excellently positioned to turn around and create a very strong place in the sun.
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Sharper Image products also evoke the desire in customers to buy them. Granted that a $1,800 massage chair may not appeal to someone who just lost their job, but one reason that these kinds of high-end gadgets are in demand is exactly because some people want to pamper themselves and take their mind away from that kind of reality.
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By shuttering the Marshall Field's catalogs, Target is saying something about its department stores business -- business isn't what it used to be, ... Part of the reason is that department stores overall are doing badly.
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What the Gap is doing is not only what it must be doing, but what it should have done a long time ago.
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What's happening is very simple. The numbers we saw today are clear evidence that the American public is shell-shocked to the point of being frightened over a big long list of circumstances surrounding the economy over which they have no power, no control.
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The worst part of these results is that they show that the effect of the tax rebate checks has petered out. This is a nightmare in itself for retailers and it doesn't bode well for Christmas. Also, we'll probably see more markdowns now, more than retailers anticipated for the holidays. That will hurt their bottom line.
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They are all planning very cautiously, very carefully. Some companies have very decent inventory controls, but however good those controls are they still have to do some economic forecasting, and forecasting is a little difficult this time around. Nobody is going to spring for big orders until there's evidence that consumer demand is back, and there is no such evidence to date.
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The sales clear evidence of modest consumer spending slow down. We expect a decent holiday sales season, but an unspectacular one. The last three have been spectacular, particularly the last one.
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Early indications show that store traffic and the promotional activity is at lower levels than last year at this time. I wouldn't be surprised if many retailers try to get away with selling merchandise at full price.
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February sales were very strong, stronger than anticipated in many instances. I will tell you that if you were a retailer in February and did not do very well, you stood out like a sore thumb. We're telling our clients that the first half of this year will continue to be marked by continued strong spending at the retail cash register.