Kurt Barnard

Kurt Barnard
beginning bought gas money realize
Today, (consumers) are beginning to realize they have to do some buying, but there isn't that much money yet after gas and what they've already bought at Wal-Mart.
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With gas prices the way they are and with people suddenly being burdened with monthly car payments, they are looking for bargains. People are taking their money from Bloomingdale's to Penney, Kohl's (NYSE: KSS - news ) and Target (NYSE: TGT - news ).
attack coming cost decline economy economy-and-economics existed extra gasoline gave gone hasten matter paycheck push retail terms
What Sept. 11 has done to the economy is to accelerate, hasten and deepen the decline, but the decline existed before. The attack gave it the extra push in terms of retail sales. If you don't have a paycheck coming in, it doesn't matter how much cost of gasoline has gone down.
beginning christmas consumer cost economy everybody exciting extra families far gas gasoline high landing less means month pump soft spending toll worried year
Everybody is worried about a soft landing for the economy and a contraction of consumer spending. And come Christmas it will be far less exciting than a year ago. The high cost at the gas pump is beginning to take its toll and for a lot of families spending an extra $20-to-$25 a month on gasoline means spending that much less on stores.
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The problem with Target is a problem facing every retailer. The price of gas is coming down, but home heating oil is going to be a major problem, ... A lot of consumers are worried.
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Americans, for one reason or another, have not given up on their infatuation with SUVs that guzzle gas by the gallons. But there's only so much money to go around. If people are paying more to drive their cars, they will have less money to spend on other things.
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The weather was a factor and the effects of higher gasoline prices are finally catching up with retailers at the registers. Beyond that, I think we're likely to see softness for the next two to three months.
gap time
What the Gap is doing is not only what it must be doing, but what it should have done a long time ago.
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What's happening is very simple. The numbers we saw today are clear evidence that the American public is shell-shocked to the point of being frightened over a big long list of circumstances surrounding the economy over which they have no power, no control.
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The worst part of these results is that they show that the effect of the tax rebate checks has petered out. This is a nightmare in itself for retailers and it doesn't bode well for Christmas. Also, we'll probably see more markdowns now, more than retailers anticipated for the holidays. That will hurt their bottom line.
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They are all planning very cautiously, very carefully. Some companies have very decent inventory controls, but however good those controls are they still have to do some economic forecasting, and forecasting is a little difficult this time around. Nobody is going to spring for big orders until there's evidence that consumer demand is back, and there is no such evidence to date.
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The sales clear evidence of modest consumer spending slow down. We expect a decent holiday sales season, but an unspectacular one. The last three have been spectacular, particularly the last one.
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Early indications show that store traffic and the promotional activity is at lower levels than last year at this time. I wouldn't be surprised if many retailers try to get away with selling merchandise at full price.
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February sales were very strong, stronger than anticipated in many instances. I will tell you that if you were a retailer in February and did not do very well, you stood out like a sore thumb. We're telling our clients that the first half of this year will continue to be marked by continued strong spending at the retail cash register.