Kurt Barnard
Kurt Barnard
higher percent projection
The 5.7 percent projection is not too much out of line, but it is at the higher end of projections,
economic forces high jobs level low money people rate spending work year
There are two conflicting forces at work on the consumer. One is people have jobs, they have money, the unemployment rate is still at a 30-year low of 3.9 percent, a lot of economic circumstances are very, very favorable. A lot of economic circumstances are very, very favorable, people have money and jobs, but they don't have as high a discretionary spending level as they did a year ago.
beginning christmas consumer cost economy everybody exciting extra families far gas gasoline high landing less means month pump soft spending toll worried year
Everybody is worried about a soft landing for the economy and a contraction of consumer spending. And come Christmas it will be far less exciting than a year ago. The high cost at the gas pump is beginning to take its toll and for a lot of families spending an extra $20-to-$25 a month on gasoline means spending that much less on stores.
activity apparel chains chin couple department groups guiding higher january lower names retailers sales store took weak
It was really the department store chains and the apparel retailers that took it on the chin with weak January sales results. But a couple of names in those two groups are guiding higher than expected, predicated on expectations of lower promotional activity going into spring.
beyond catching effects factor finally gasoline higher likely next prices retailers softness three weather
The weather was a factor and the effects of higher gasoline prices are finally catching up with retailers at the registers. Beyond that, I think we're likely to see softness for the next two to three months.
available bricks carry click dominant elsewhere factor future highly internet kinds lies operations pure simply
I think the future lies in two different kinds of Internet players. The one is the bricks and clicks, and that will be the dominant factor in the business, ... The other one will be highly specialized pure play click operations that carry things, do things that are simply not available elsewhere through other channels.
below decent high large last retail sales
I think by and large retail sales will be decent for most retailers, but not spectacular, ... Most will come in with same-store sales very much below the formidably high same-store sales of last year.
against easier exuberant far favorable high level retailers slide suffering year
What we are suffering from is the slide from the exuberant high we had a year ago at a level that was completely unsustainable, ... I will also tell you retailers are going to be up against far more favorable numbers, easier numbers.
gap time
What the Gap is doing is not only what it must be doing, but what it should have done a long time ago.
clear economy evidence frightened happening list numbers point public saw today
What's happening is very simple. The numbers we saw today are clear evidence that the American public is shell-shocked to the point of being frightened over a big long list of circumstances surrounding the economy over which they have no power, no control.
bottom checks effect hurt itself nightmare results retailers tax worst
The worst part of these results is that they show that the effect of the tax rebate checks has petered out. This is a nightmare in itself for retailers and it doesn't bode well for Christmas. Also, we'll probably see more markdowns now, more than retailers anticipated for the holidays. That will hurt their bottom line.
companies consumer controls decent demand difficult economic evidence good however inventory nobody orders planning spring time until
They are all planning very cautiously, very carefully. Some companies have very decent inventory controls, but however good those controls are they still have to do some economic forecasting, and forecasting is a little difficult this time around. Nobody is going to spring for big orders until there's evidence that consumer demand is back, and there is no such evidence to date.
clear consumer decent evidence expect holiday last modest sales slow spending three
The sales clear evidence of modest consumer spending slow down. We expect a decent holiday sales season, but an unspectacular one. The last three have been spectacular, particularly the last one.
activity early full last levels lower retailers selling store surprised traffic year
Early indications show that store traffic and the promotional activity is at lower levels than last year at this time. I wouldn't be surprised if many retailers try to get away with selling merchandise at full price.