Kurt Barnard
Kurt Barnard
absent best both drives ease factors job jobs obtaining present retail sales until year
The thing that drives retail sales most and best is job availability and the ease of obtaining new jobs. Both of these factors are absent at the present time. It may not be until the end of the year that we see job growth.
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You know, Americans have jobs. Americans are earning money. They feel good about themselves. They feel secure in their ability to hold onto the job, and even if they lose the job they know they don't have to go too far to find another one, ... So they feel a sense of security, of freedom to go out and spend and buy and do things for themselves, and that is why we are absolutely convinced that consumer spending will remain strong certainly throughout the balance of this year, and ... maybe into next year.
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Sears is on the way back to health. They're doing a good job (of cost cutting) and they are offering customers a good, recognizable value and customers are responding.
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There are two conflicting forces at work on the consumer. One is people have jobs, they have money, the unemployment rate is still at a 30-year low of 3.9 percent, a lot of economic circumstances are very, very favorable. A lot of economic circumstances are very, very favorable, people have money and jobs, but they don't have as high a discretionary spending level as they did a year ago.
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Until the unemployment picture improves, consumers will be very cautious about their spending habits. We think the second half of the year could also be difficult for the retail industry unless the job demand improves.
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Americans are being bombarded with announcements of layoffs. Anytime you listen to the radio it's always 3,000 laid off here, 500 there, ... That means a lot of people who have decent jobs and good income hear that little voice in the back of their head asking the question 'could my number be up next?' They're buying what they need, but they don't buy frivolously.
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I think Conaway is a good retailing executive, but he made too many mistakes at the very beginning of his tenure at Kmart. It is quite possible that his background and length of experience did not sufficiently qualify him for the immense job he was taking on.
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Retailing and consumer spending are a function of a four-letter word -- jobs. And there are no jobs being formed in the United States at the present time. We are in an unfortunate labor climate, one that might be called not at all propitious for retail spending.
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Retailers know that for a lot of consumers, this is a time of uncertainty about their jobs, ... This will make them frugal with their holiday shopping and they will be on the hunt for the best deals out there.
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Remember, there are still over 2 million unemployed workers and over 5 million are on part-time jobs. Christmas will be moderately better simply because last year was so bad. But unless this jobs picture improves, it's hard to say that the retail industry has finally turned the corner.
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The jobs situation is still not resolved. Across several industries, inventories are rising, and we're seeing that consumers are trading down. That's an indicator that people are not beset with worries but they are turning cautious.
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The job cuts and nameplate changes will help keep prices down, ... The job cuts will trim costs and changing Marshall Field's to the Macy's nameplate also should save in advertising and in negotiating with vendors.
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What the Gap is doing is not only what it must be doing, but what it should have done a long time ago.
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What's happening is very simple. The numbers we saw today are clear evidence that the American public is shell-shocked to the point of being frightened over a big long list of circumstances surrounding the economy over which they have no power, no control.