Kurt Barnard
Kurt Barnard
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They are all planning very cautiously, very carefully. Some companies have very decent inventory controls, but however good those controls are they still have to do some economic forecasting, and forecasting is a little difficult this time around. Nobody is going to spring for big orders until there's evidence that consumer demand is back, and there is no such evidence to date.
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Shelf space is diamond-encrusted gold. It's exposure to the consumer and everyone wants exposure to the consumer. They each had a lot of economic power before, but with the marriage they'll have a lot more power, power to get shelf space, preferred positions, all of that.
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There are two conflicting forces at work on the consumer. One is people have jobs, they have money, the unemployment rate is still at a 30-year low of 3.9 percent, a lot of economic circumstances are very, very favorable. A lot of economic circumstances are very, very favorable, people have money and jobs, but they don't have as high a discretionary spending level as they did a year ago.
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What Sept. 11 has done to the economy is to accelerate, hasten and deepen the decline, but the decline existed before. The attack gave it the extra push in terms of retail sales. If you don't have a paycheck coming in, it doesn't matter how much cost of gasoline has gone down.
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Consumers are already concerned that the labor market continues to lag behind an economic recovery. They don't really need another negative distraction.
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It is a coming back down to earth. About two or three months ago, the world was swept up by the notion that the economic recession is over and the good times are rolling again. That meant consumers would be knocking down the doors of retailers the way they did a few years ago. But guess what? It ain't happening.
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What we have seen is a continuation of an economic downturn accompanied by a downturn in consumer confidence and employment that started and gathered speed long before Sept. 11,
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They have all learned one lesson -- make yourself more efficient. Operate more economically, and do more with less.
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People are more inclined these days to make themselves rely on one salary instead of waiting for a Wall Street home run, and that is the background of the economic environment.
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What the Gap is doing is not only what it must be doing, but what it should have done a long time ago.
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What's happening is very simple. The numbers we saw today are clear evidence that the American public is shell-shocked to the point of being frightened over a big long list of circumstances surrounding the economy over which they have no power, no control.
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The worst part of these results is that they show that the effect of the tax rebate checks has petered out. This is a nightmare in itself for retailers and it doesn't bode well for Christmas. Also, we'll probably see more markdowns now, more than retailers anticipated for the holidays. That will hurt their bottom line.
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The sales clear evidence of modest consumer spending slow down. We expect a decent holiday sales season, but an unspectacular one. The last three have been spectacular, particularly the last one.
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Early indications show that store traffic and the promotional activity is at lower levels than last year at this time. I wouldn't be surprised if many retailers try to get away with selling merchandise at full price.