Kurt Barnard
Kurt Barnard
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What Sept. 11 has done to the economy is to accelerate, hasten and deepen the decline, but the decline existed before. The attack gave it the extra push in terms of retail sales. If you don't have a paycheck coming in, it doesn't matter how much cost of gasoline has gone down.
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They are all planning very cautiously, very carefully. Some companies have very decent inventory controls, but however good those controls are they still have to do some economic forecasting, and forecasting is a little difficult this time around. Nobody is going to spring for big orders until there's evidence that consumer demand is back, and there is no such evidence to date.
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Shelf space is diamond-encrusted gold. It's exposure to the consumer and everyone wants exposure to the consumer. They each had a lot of economic power before, but with the marriage they'll have a lot more power, power to get shelf space, preferred positions, all of that.
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There are two conflicting forces at work on the consumer. One is people have jobs, they have money, the unemployment rate is still at a 30-year low of 3.9 percent, a lot of economic circumstances are very, very favorable. A lot of economic circumstances are very, very favorable, people have money and jobs, but they don't have as high a discretionary spending level as they did a year ago.
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They have all learned one lesson -- make yourself more efficient. Operate more economically, and do more with less.
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Consumers are already concerned that the labor market continues to lag behind an economic recovery. They don't really need another negative distraction.
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What we have seen is a continuation of an economic downturn accompanied by a downturn in consumer confidence and employment that started and gathered speed long before Sept. 11,
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People are more inclined these days to make themselves rely on one salary instead of waiting for a Wall Street home run, and that is the background of the economic environment.
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It is a coming back down to earth. About two or three months ago, the world was swept up by the notion that the economic recession is over and the good times are rolling again. That meant consumers would be knocking down the doors of retailers the way they did a few years ago. But guess what? It ain't happening.
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It's not a core business, but (gardening) is a very profitable part of the business.
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E-commerce is growing exponentially, and it is not at all unreasonable to think that simply because the store essentially, or a whole horizon of stores, happens to be right on your desk, that shopping is made so much easier than before,
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Everybody is worried about a soft landing for the economy and a contraction of consumer spending. And come Christmas it will be far less exciting than a year ago. The high cost at the gas pump is beginning to take its toll and for a lot of families spending an extra $20-to-$25 a month on gasoline means spending that much less on stores.
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The blizzard was a serious setback for retailers, especially since the Presidents Day weekend is a major day for sales. Most of the malls and independent stores were shut in the Northeast.
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The bigger it gets, the smaller the percentage growth will be. Let's say that when you add 10 new stores to 100 stores, you grow the business 10 percent. When you add 10 stores to 3,000 stores, the growth isn't obvious.