Kurt Barnard
Kurt Barnard
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What we are seeing is that consumers' cautious spending is now stretching to the low-priced discount stores as well as to the other stores. ...Today, saving money is chic. Bargain hunting is fashionable.
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When the full story is reached at the end of the quarter, retail profits will be less impressive, especially in apparel. There was nothing in the display windows (of clothiers) to incite cautious customers to buy.
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Consumers are extremely cautious today, and that caution has not really very much to do with consumer confidence indexes. It's related almost exclusively to one item, one four-letter word: jobs.
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With this kind of weather, we've now had this for some days, I think you'll find retail sales will reflect a cautious attitude on the part of consumers,
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Until the unemployment picture improves, consumers will be very cautious about their spending habits. We think the second half of the year could also be difficult for the retail industry unless the job demand improves.
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Wal-Mart's news is a very big deal. There's no doubt that a significant number of consumers are shopping paycheck to paycheck. Most are also waiting for price reductions. So saying that the consumer is still cautious is a good indicator that the holiday season will only be moderately better than last year.
cautious consumers doubt good holiday indicator last moderately news number paycheck price reduction saying season shopping support tax waiting
Wal-Mart's news is a very big deal, ... There's no doubt that a significant number of consumers are shopping paycheck to paycheck. Most are also waiting for price reductions because they know that the support of another tax rebate or tax reduction is unlikely. So saying that the consumer is still cautious is a good indicator that the holiday season will only be moderately better than last year.
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We are really seeing a cautious consumer who is cutting back on discretionary spending.
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Americans have become very cautious spenders, and that was extremely evident in May. Retail sales will continue to advance, but very slowly, very cautiously.
gap time
What the Gap is doing is not only what it must be doing, but what it should have done a long time ago.
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What's happening is very simple. The numbers we saw today are clear evidence that the American public is shell-shocked to the point of being frightened over a big long list of circumstances surrounding the economy over which they have no power, no control.
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The worst part of these results is that they show that the effect of the tax rebate checks has petered out. This is a nightmare in itself for retailers and it doesn't bode well for Christmas. Also, we'll probably see more markdowns now, more than retailers anticipated for the holidays. That will hurt their bottom line.
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They are all planning very cautiously, very carefully. Some companies have very decent inventory controls, but however good those controls are they still have to do some economic forecasting, and forecasting is a little difficult this time around. Nobody is going to spring for big orders until there's evidence that consumer demand is back, and there is no such evidence to date.
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The sales clear evidence of modest consumer spending slow down. We expect a decent holiday sales season, but an unspectacular one. The last three have been spectacular, particularly the last one.